Alabama's 2nd Congressional District has turned into one of the most closely watched House races in the country, with Democratic Rep. Shomari Figures and Republican state Rep. Rhett Marques locked in what multiple internal polls describe as a dead heat. The outcome may hinge on a single number: how many voters turn out in Montgomery County, the district's largest population center and home to its biggest concentration of Black voters.
A District Reshaped by Court Battles
The 2nd District looks nothing like the one Figures won two years ago. Mobile County was stripped out of the map, and the district was pushed farther into southeast Alabama to pick up heavily Republican turf in the Wiregrass, according to al.com. The redrawn boundaries would have favored Donald Trump by 14 percentage points in the 2024 presidential election, the same report notes, a dramatic shift from the district Figures carried with 54.6% of the vote under the old map.
Despite that rightward lean, Figures said about 31% of registered voters in the district live in Montgomery County, and that the county could account for as much as 40% of the electorate if turnout runs high — a scenario al.com reports he is counting on to offset Republican strength elsewhere. Black voters make up about 40% of the newly redrawn district, according to aldailynews.com, underscoring why Montgomery turnout looms so large in both parties' calculations.
Polls Show a Race Too Close to Call
Three separate surveys point to the same conclusion: this race is not settled. An internal poll of 421 likely voters taken in late July, with a 4.8% margin of error, found Figures and Marques tied at 46% apiece with 8% undecided, al.com reported. A House Majority PAC poll conducted by Tulchin Research from Aug. 24-31 found the same 47-47 deadlock in its initial head-to-head test, according to the committee's own release.
That same House Majority PAC poll contained a notable wrinkle — once voters heard biographical information about both candidates, Figures moved ahead, 50% to 47%. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee pointed to the overall polling picture in mid-August to declare, in al.com's account, that “this is a toss up race, plain and simple.” Figures is leaning on competitive performance in Republican-leaning counties combined with substantially higher Democratic turnout in Montgomery and other majority-Black counties, the outlet reported.
Money Pours Into Montgomery Airwaves
The financial battle is just as intense as the polling. Figures had raised about $1.35 million through July 22 with $663,000 in the bank, while Marques had raised roughly $1.32 million but had just $188,000 on hand, per aldailynews.com. In the two months before that, Figures raised about $468,000 and spent roughly $138,000, building a war chest of about $656,000, while Marques brought in $168,000 and had about $450,000 on hand ahead of the special primary, the outlet's earlier fundraising report found.
Outside spending has followed the same pattern. Democratic campaigns and allied groups have spent nearly $1.5 million on advertising since the special primary, according to the Decatur Daily, compared with about $827,000 spent by Marques and his supporters since the week he clinched the nomination. The Trump-aligned No Going Back PAC has been the largest outside spender backing Marques, pouring in roughly $539,000, while Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker's Ready for the Fight PAC has reserved nearly $1.2 million more in ad time for the rest of the campaign, the report states.
Geography shapes where that money is landing. The Montgomery media market has absorbed about $1.1 million in ad spending over roughly two months, the same report notes, while the Wiregrass market has seen nearly $500,000 and the Columbus/Auburn market about $437,000. Figures and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee also began a six-figure television buy across the Montgomery, Dothan and Columbus, Georgia, markets, al.com reported.
Rival Ratings and a Tight National Picture
National handicappers remain split on how to grade the seat. The Cook Political Report rates the reconfigured district as likely Republican with an R+7 lean, according to aldailynews.com's reporting, while Marques officially secured the GOP nomination with 50% of the special primary vote against five other candidates. The general election is set for Nov. 3.
With both campaigns pouring resources into the same handful of media markets and the polling locked in a near-even split, the race is shaping up as a test of whether Figures can engineer enough turnout in Montgomery to overcome a district drawn to favor Republicans — or whether Marques can convert the Wiregrass's deep red lean into a statewide win.
