Buffalo had light rain Tuesday morning, with a warm, breezy afternoon in the forecast. The latest forecast calls for mostly sunny, breezy conditions this afternoon, with highs in the upper 70s and southwest winds of 15 to 25 mph, gusting up to 35 mph. The updated forecast for Northern Erie County gives the afternoon outlook.
Showers and thunderstorms remain possible Tuesday, and the National Weather Service identifies a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms in Northern Erie County, with damaging wind gusts the primary threat. The NWS Buffalo hazard display lists no marine advisories; its local hazard map does not show a land watch or warning for Buffalo. The hazardous weather outlook describes the storm risk, and the Buffalo office’s hazard display shows no marine advisories.
Quiet Wednesday And Thursday
Conditions should gradually improve Tuesday night. Wednesday brings mostly cloudy skies and a high in the mid-60s, with light winds becoming northwest at 5 to 10 mph. The latest forecast does not include the earlier stated chance of morning showers. The updated NWS forecast for Northern Erie County gives Wednesday’s outlook.
Thursday looks mostly cloudy in the morning, then partly sunny, with highs in the lower 60s. Showers are forecast Thursday night, with the chance of rain near 100% and lows in the upper 40s. The latest NWS forecast for Northern Erie County provides the updated temperatures and precipitation outlook.
Friday Brings Wind And A Sharp Temperature Drop
Friday is forecast to bring showers, with highs around 60 and the chance of rain near 100%. Strong winds are possible Friday into Saturday, though the latest zone forecast does not give the earlier stated wind speeds or gusts. Friday night is forecast to bring rain showers, a 90% chance of rain and lows in the lower 30s. The updated NWS zone forecast gives Friday’s rain and temperatures, while the Buffalo forecast discussion notes the potential for strong winds.
The late-week change is tied to a deepening low-pressure system moving across the Great Lakes and a sharp cold front expected Friday. The National Weather Service says forecast models still differ on the system’s timing and strength, leaving details uncertain, but forecasters expect the colder air behind the front to bring a risk of strong winds Friday into Saturday. The Buffalo office’s forecast discussion says rain showers could eventually give way to lake-effect rain and snow showers.
Saturday is forecast to be partly sunny, with a 40% chance of rain showers and highs in the upper 40s. The latest NWS forecast for Northern Erie County gives the updated precipitation chance and temperature.
Lake-effect precipitation forms when cold air moves across warmer lake water, picks up moisture and produces clouds and precipitation downwind; the wind helps determine where the bands set up. Buffalo’s climate history notes that lake-effect snow can begin as early as mid-November, while the first measurable snowfall usually arrives around then. That seasonal backdrop does not mean Saturday’s showers will turn to snow: the current Buffalo forecast calls for a 40% chance of rain showers Saturday. The NWS climate narrative describes the local lake-effect pattern and its usual timing.
Sunshine Returns Sunday
Sunday offers a cleaner forecast, with sunny skies and a high near 57. Partly cloudy conditions are expected Sunday night before a partly sunny Monday reaches about 63 degrees.
