Three Democratic congressional candidates from opposite corners of Virginia stood together on a Henrico County stage Monday, making the case that control of the U.S. House could hinge on their races. Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg told the crowd the path to flipping the chamber from Republican to Democratic control runs through Virginia, framing the state's three closest contests as a national bellwether with two weeks left before Election Day.
The rally, held two weeks before polls close, brought together Henrico County prosecutor Shannon Taylor, who is challenging Republican Rep. Rob Wittman in the 1st District, former Rep. Elaine Luria, who is rematching against Republican Rep. Jen Kiggans in the 2nd District, and former Rep. Tom Perriello, who is seeking to unseat Republican Rep. John McGuire in the 5th District. Also on hand were Rep. Jennifer McClellan and Buttigieg himself, according to The Washington Post. As Virginia Mercury reports, the gathering reflects a broader push by Democrats to ramp up outreach across all three districts ahead of the Nov. 3 midterms.
Three Districts, Three Different Fights
Virginia's 1st District stretches from Westmoreland southward around Richmond's suburbs and was rated a toss-up heading into 2026, per Virginia Mercury's reporting. Taylor addressed a crowd of a few hundred at the Henrico Theatre, telling supporters she had nearly 20 years of evidence against Wittman and criticizing him for frequently siding with his party and President Trump, according to the same report.
The 2nd District, which holds the highest concentration of military personnel in Virginia, is a rematch between Luria and Kiggans, who defeated her in 2022 after each had represented the swing seat for two terms, Virginia Mercury notes. Luria criticized Kiggans for expressing support for the Iran war, even though Congress has not formally approved the conflict that Trump launched in February, and said the fighting feels especially personal in Hampton Roads because constituents there are deploying. Kiggans has acknowledged that higher gas prices are a consequence of the conflict, per the same account. Luria called for a Hampton Roads leader who would support service members and veterans while checking the administration.
Meanwhile, the 5th District, which extends from north of Charlottesville to the North Carolina border, was considered competitive in 2026. Perriello, the only Democrat to represent the district in the previous two decades before losing reelection in 2010, told the crowd that families across the district are hopeful for champions committed to public service, Virginia Mercury reports.
Healthcare and the Affordable Care Act Take Center Stage
Buttigieg argued that the Affordable Care Act has saved countless lives and remains a winning issue for Democrats, according to Virginia Mercury's account of the rally. Perriello cast a decisive vote advancing the ACA during his single term in the House, a law Democrats describe as providing an insurance marketplace for people who would otherwise lack healthcare options.
The stakes feel concrete in rural Virginia. Rural patients on the South Side already travel farther for treatment, and some South Side hospitals lack obstetrics care for expecting parents, per the same reporting. Democratic candidates blamed Trump and Republican congressional majorities for rising gas, grocery and healthcare prices amid the Iran war, while pointing to H.R. 1, a reconciliation bill that Wittman, Kiggans and McGuire all supported. That legislation puts 300,000 Virginians at risk of losing Medicaid, according to Virginia Mercury, and 13 rural Virginia hospitals have been identified as at risk of closure as hospitals statewide trimmed services ahead of funding changes tied to the bill. Wittman was among 17 Republicans who supported extending expired ACA subsidies, the outlet notes.
Polling Shows Tight Margins Across All Three Races
Independent polling backs up the sense that these races are close. A Washington Post-Schar School poll conducted among likely voters from Sept. 23 to 28 found Taylor leading Wittman 50% to 46% in the 1st District, within the margin of error, according to the Schar School at George Mason University. In the 2nd District, a separate poll found Luria leading Kiggans 46% to 43% among likely voters, with 10% undecided, a three-point gap that fell within the survey's plus-or-minus four-point margin of error, per Virginia Mercury's report on the poll. That same survey found Luria leading among independents 45% to 38%, with women favoring her 57% to 36% while men backed Kiggans 49% to 37%. Luria led Kiggans on 10 of the 12 issues surveyed, though cost of living was the single most-cited concern, named by 24% of respondents as their top issue.
The 5th District picture is consistent across the polls cited here: Cardinal News reported a poll showing McGuire ahead of Perriello 51% to 45%, while the Schar School-Washington Post poll, conducted over the same late-September window, found McGuire leading 51% to 45%. Sabato's Crystal Ball has nonetheless moved all three districts in Democrats' favor this cycle, shifting the 1st from leans Republican to toss-up, the 2nd from toss-up to leans Democratic, and the 5th from likely Republican to leans Republican, per Cardinal News.
Early Voting and Ground Games Ramp Up
Early voting trends have given Democrats some encouragement, even as overall turnout has lagged. Statewide, Virginia had recorded 255,025 early votes compared with 264,810 at the same point a year earlier, a 3.7% decline, Cardinal News reports. Despite the dip, the data firm State Navigate estimated early voting was running 4.2 percentage points more Democratic than the prior year, with a 5.9-point shift toward Democrats specifically in the 2nd District.
In the 5th District, more than 80,000 people had voted early as of a few days before the rally, according to WHRO. Outside groups are focused squarely on turnout there. Free DC campaign director Alex Dodds told the station, “We are prioritizing turnout rather than persuasion,” describing the group's door-knocking effort for Perriello. Rural GroundGame said it reached out to 253,000 Virginia voters in 2025 who hadn't voted in at least two of the previous four elections, the station reported. On the fundraising side, FEC data published Oct. 15 showed Perriello had raised more than $3.1 million with about $1 million cash on hand, while McGuire had raised about $2.2 million with less than half a million dollars on hand, per WHRO's reporting.
Republicans Push Back
Not everyone welcomed the Henrico gathering. In a statement, RNC spokesperson Emma Hall emphasized Buttigieg's failed 2020 presidential campaign and his later work for President Biden, calling Taylor and Luria “desperate” for campaigning alongside what she termed a “Biden hack,” according to Virginia Mercury's reporting.
Early voting in Virginia runs through Oct. 31, with Election Day set for Tuesday, Nov. 3. Voters in the 1st, 2nd and 5th Districts will help decide not just three individual House seats but, as Buttigieg framed it in Henrico, whether Democrats can retake the chamber at all.
