Democratic Senate candidates are narrowly leading in three of the nation's most closely watched midterm races — Iowa, Ohio and Texas — according to a new poll released Wednesday by The Cook Political Report. In Iowa, Democrat Josh Turek led Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson 46% to 44%. In Ohio, former Sen. Sherrod Brown led Republican Sen. Jon Husted 49% to 43%. And in Texas, state Rep. James Talarico led Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton 49% to 44%.
The survey, conducted Oct. 9-13 by Democratic firm New River Strategies and Republican firm GS Strategy Group, polled 602 likely voters in Iowa, 959 in Ohio and 934 in Texas, according to Cook Political Report. As The Hill reported, the poll also found Democratic candidates leading in two of the three gubernatorial contests surveyed. Cook rated all three Senate races as toss-ups, according to Newsweek.
Texas: A Historic Democratic Drought on the Line
Talarico led Paxton by five points in the same Cook survey. The Hill noted that the Democratic Party has not won a U.S. Senate seat in Texas in more than 30 years, and that Talarico has maintained a narrow lead over Paxton since the Texas GOP primary, when Donald Trump backed Paxton over incumbent Sen. John Cornyn. Cook editor-in-chief Amy Walter said Paxton is almost twice as unpopular as President Trump among Texans, according to The Hill's reporting.
In the Texas governor's race, incumbent GOP Gov. Greg Abbott led Democrat Gina Hinojosa by just two points, 48% to 46%, with that result also within the poll's margin of error. Not every pollster sees the Senate race the same way: a Fox News poll found Talarico and Paxton tied at 49% each, according to Fox News, while a CBS News/YouGov survey of 1,492 registered voters interviewed Oct. 8-16 described the race as essentially tied, per CBS News. The New York Times has noted the contest is likely to be among the most expensive Senate races in U.S. history, according to The New York Times.
Iowa: Trump Country Turns Competitive
Turek's two-point lead over Hinson in the Senate race was well within the poll's four-point margin of error, Cook Political Report found. The Hill's reporting pointed out that Donald Trump won Iowa by double digits, underscoring how competitive the race has become. Libertarian nominee Thomas Laehn drew 8% of the vote in Cook's poll, a bloc that The Hill suggested could prove decisive in a close contest.
Cook's polling also found voters view Turek 28 points more favorably than “Democrats in Washington,” an analysis The Hill attributed to Amy Walter. In the governor's race, Democratic state Auditor Rob Sand led Republican Zach Lahn by 11 points, 54% to 43% — a potential flip of a governorship currently held by Republican Kim Reynolds, The Hill reported.
Ohio: Brown's Comeback Bid and a Bruising Ad War
Sherrod Brown, pursuing a Senate comeback in Ohio, led Jon Husted 49% to 43% in Cook's poll. The Hill reported that Vivek Ramaswamy's campaign launched an attack ad featuring Amy Acton's estranged mother, and that Vice President JD Vance rallied for both Ramaswamy and Husted in the state. In the governor's race, Acton led Ramaswamy 49% to 44%, per Cook.
Other polling tells a somewhat different story in Ohio. A Marist University poll showed Brown leading Husted by four points among likely voters, narrower than Cook's six-point spread, according to WLWT. The same Marist survey found Acton leading Ramaswamy by seven points, wider than Cook's five-point margin. Separately, a Fox News poll released Wednesday showed Brown leading Husted 52% to 47% among likely voters, according to Newsweek.
Trust on the Economy, but Democrats Still Unpopular
Across all three states, Cook found Democratic Senate candidates were more trusted than their Republican opponents to handle inflation, corruption and lowering energy and gas prices. All three Democratic candidates were at least even in favorability, while their Republican opponents were underwater by double digits, the polling found. Yet the same survey found Democrats remained broadly unpopular in Texas, Iowa and Ohio, with the party's favorability sitting below Trump's in all three states, The Hill reported.
GS Strategy Group pollster Greg Strimple said voters are choosing Democrats largely out of dissatisfaction with the president, calling the level of voter discontent “truly unprecedented,” according to The Hill's account of the survey. Forecasting model Decision Desk HQ, cited in The Hill's reporting, gave Talarico a 55% chance of winning in Texas against a 70% chance for Abbott to win a fourth term; in Iowa, it gave Hinson a 55% chance of holding the seat and Sand a 72% chance of flipping the governorship; and in Ohio, it gave Brown a 53% chance of winning the Senate seat and Acton a 60% chance in the governor's race.
A Note of Caution From Cook's Editor
Amy Walter cautioned that all three Senate races remain close and that most results sit within the margin of error, The Hill reported. She noted that none of the three leading Democrats has captured a majority of the vote, and said movement among undecided and third-party voters in the campaign's closing stretch will determine who ultimately controls the Senate. In Iowa, 8% of voters back Laehn; in Ohio, 7% of all voters — including 13% of independents — are backing either the independent or Libertarian Senate candidate, per Cook's polling, leaving plenty of room for the numbers to shift before Election Day.
