Democrats now hold a commanding 10-point advantage over Republicans in the nationwide race for Congress, with registered voters favoring Democrats 49% to 39%, according to a new poll. The same survey found President Donald Trump's approval rating sitting at a record low of 32% heading into the midterms.
The findings come from a poll conducted by SSRS from October 15 through October 18, surveying 1,701 U.S. adults, including 1,206 registered voters, according to News8000. Interviews were conducted either online or by telephone with a live interviewer, and the poll carries a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points overall, widening slightly to 3.3 points among registered voters, as reported by CNN.
That 10-point gap marks the largest Democratic advantage recorded in CNN polling since just before the 2020 election, the network notes. It also tracks with a broader shift already visible among voters who have cast ballots early: those voters favor Democrats over Republicans 70% to 29%, while voters who have not yet voted still lean Democratic, 46% to 41%, per the same CNN report.
Trump's Numbers Slide Even Among His Own Base
Trump's overall approval of 32% is paired with a notable erosion among Republicans themselves. His approval rating within his own party now stands at 74%, down from 88% in February 2025, CNN reports. Among Republican-aligned adults younger than 45, nearly four in ten now disapprove of the president, a shift that stands out given how solidly the GOP base once lined up behind him.
The anti-Trump sentiment appears to be a defining feature of this election cycle. Roughly six in ten voters say their midterm vote will be sending a message about Trump, and among that group, opposition messages outnumber supportive ones by a 2-to-1 margin, according to CNN's findings. More than three-quarters of voters see the election as a chance to change how Washington operates.
Democratic Edge Spans Demographics, Issues
The Democratic advantage shows up across nearly every demographic slice CNN measured. Black voters favor Democrats by 70 percentage points and Latino voters by 40 points, while Democrats also lead by 21 points among women, 31 points among younger adults, and 15 points among independents. Democrats additionally hold an 18-point edge among voters who describe themselves as extremely motivated to vote.
Even on the economy, long considered a potential strength for Republicans, Democrats top the GOP 46% to 37% among registered voters who name it their top concern, CNN found. Separate polling from Pew Research Center adds texture to the motivation gap: Democratic supporters were 17 points more likely than Republican supporters to say they felt extremely motivated to vote, and most voters, 63%, said Trump was a factor in their congressional choice, with 44% calling it a vote against him versus just 19% calling it a vote for him.
Not Every Poll Agrees, and History Urges Caution
Pew's own national House preference numbers show a narrower 8-point Democratic edge, 44% to 36%, a reminder that different polls can produce different margins even when pointing the same direction. Other recent surveys have found even wider gaps: the New York Times/Siena poll put Democrats ahead by 11 points among likely voters asked about specific House candidates, 52% to 41%, while a Strength In Numbers/Verasight poll found registered voters preferring a Democrat 52% to 41% and likely voters favoring one 54% to 42%, according to NPR.
Nate Silver's polling average, meanwhile, puts the Democratic generic-ballot lead at 9.2 points as of Thursday, October 22, which the Silver Bulletin describes as a new all-time high for the 2026 cycle. The analysis notes that Democrats' polling surge began in early September, leveled off briefly, and has since resumed climbing.
Still, the scale of the numbers has prompted some historical caution. A 10-point Democratic margin would represent roughly a 13-point swing from the 2024 nationwide House popular vote, and no party has won the national vote by a margin as large as 11 points since Democrats did so in 2008, according to the New York Times. The Times also points out that polls have suggested similarly lopsided Republican defeats before in the Trump era, only to ultimately overestimate Democratic support in 2016, 2020, and, in crucial red states, in 2018.
