A fresh statewide survey released this week shows Republican Byron Donalds leading Democrat David Jolly in Florida's governor race, 50% to 44%, while GOP incumbent Ashley Moody holds a wider edge over Angie Nixon in the U.S. Senate contest, 51% to 43%. But the numbers drawing the most attention from Tallahassee to the Panhandle may not be the candidate matchups at all — they're the 58% of Florida voters who named inflation and the cost of living their single biggest worry heading into the Nov. 3 election.
Groceries Lead Household Financial Strain
The poll, conducted by Echelon Insights on behalf of NetChoice from October 16 to 23, surveyed 3,644 likely voters nationwide, including 515 in Florida, according to NetChoice. The Florida subsample carries a margin of error of plus or minus 5.0 percentage points, compared with 3.2 points for the national sample. Beyond the top-line cost-of-living number, 71% of Florida respondents pointed to groceries and food as their main source of financial strain over the past year, with 38% citing transportation costs and 33% citing housing.
Among household financial strains, groceries and food were the most frequently cited: 71% of respondents named them as their main source of financial strain over the past year, with 38% citing transportation costs and 33% citing housing. Separately, when asked about policy priorities, 23% of respondents named ending the war with Iran as a top priority, while 22% cited jobs and the economy. As Tampa Free Press reported, the mood data paints a picture of an electorate far more fixated on household budgets than on Washington's policy debates.
Mood of the Electorate Skews Sour
That financial anxiety appears to be bleeding into broader sentiment about the country's direction. Fifty-four percent of Florida respondents said the nation is on the wrong track, versus 36% who said it's headed the right way, per the same NetChoice-commissioned survey. President Donald Trump's job approval among Florida respondents sat at 48%, with 50% disapproving, the poll found.
On the generic congressional ballot, Florida voters favored the Republican candidate over the Democrat, 51% to 45%, according to the survey — consistent with the statewide Republican lean reflected across the candidate matchups.
Amendment 3 Clears a Majority, But Not Yet the Threshold
Florida's property tax ballot measure, Amendment 3, drew support from 57% of surveyed voters in the NetChoice poll, with 32% opposed and 10% undecided. The amendment would raise the homestead exemption for non-school property taxes to $150,000 in 2027 and $250,000 in 2028, according to NBC Miami. Because constitutional amendments in Florida require at least 60% voter approval to pass, even a majority-support reading leaves the measure short of what it needs on Election Day.
Other recent surveys have landed in starkly different places. A University of North Florida poll fielded October 12 through 19 found just 50% support for Amendment 3, with 30% opposed and 14% undecided — ten points shy of the 60% threshold, according to WUSF. A James Madison Institute survey conducted with Targoz in late September and early October found support as high as 63%, with 21% opposed, per James Madison Institute. Meanwhile a St. Pete Polls survey found support as low as 42%, with 35% opposed and 23% undecided, according to the Sun Sentinel, which noted three polls released in the same week showed sharply different outcomes. An October survey from EDGE Communications and MDW Communications put support at 50%, per Florida Politics.
Candidate Margins Also Vary Widely Across Pollsters
The governor and Senate races show a similar pattern of disagreement depending on who's asking. The UNF poll found Donalds ahead of Jolly by just two points, 49% to 47%, with 4% undecided, and Moody leading Nixon by four points, 49% to 45%, with 5% undecided, according to News4Jax. Those UNF margins were narrower than the lab's own July poll, which had Donalds up by five points and Moody up by eight. Notably, UNF found Jolly leading Donalds by 16 points among independent voters, and Nixon leading Moody by 15 points in that same bloc.
Other polls showed much larger Republican advantages. A Stetson University survey fielded in mid-to-late September found Donalds up 51% to 39% over Jolly, and Moody leading Nixon 51% to 40%, according to Stetson University. A Mason-Dixon poll conducted for NBC 6 and Telemundo found Donalds at 48% to Jolly's 41%, and Moody leading Nixon 50% to 40%, per NBC News. And the JMI/Targoz survey from late September found Donalds leading Jolly 52% to 42%, with Moody also up 52% to 42% over Nixon.
Fuel Prices and Household Budgets Loom Large
The affordability squeeze shows up across multiple independent surveys, not just the NetChoice poll. The JMI/Targoz survey found fuel prices and health care tied as the top issues among registered Florida voters at 36% each, with housing affordability at 30% and taxes and government spending at 29%. Eighty percent of those voters said recent changes in fuel prices had altered their household spending habits, and 39% said their financial situation was worse than a year earlier, compared with just 16% who said they were better off, according to the same James Madison Institute report.
The NetChoice poll found that 58% of Florida voters named inflation and the cost of living as a top priority heading into the election — underscoring how dominant affordability has become this fall.
