Hawaiʻi’s latest state estimates describe a smaller, older population: 1,432,820 residents on July 1, 2025, down 1.5% from April 1, 2020, while the median age rose to 42.1 from 40.6. Those figures appear in the 2025 State of Hawaiʻi Data Book, as reported by KHON2. The demographic shift is statewide, but its components and its overlap with housing costs require separate context.
A statewide decline, with different county age profiles
The Hawaiʻi State Data Center estimated an average annual population decline of 0.3% between July 1, 2020, and July 1, 2025. It said the Vintage 2025 estimates were revised downward in part because international migration estimates were lowered, while domestic out-migration continued to exceed natural birth-to-death growth. That explanation is statewide; it does not establish which factors drove population change in any particular county.
Age varies by county: Hawaiʻi County had the highest median age, 44.9, and Honolulu County the lowest, 40.9, according to KHON2’s account of the Data Book. These county age figures show that the statewide median does not describe every island county equally; they are not county-level evidence about migration or the causes of population change.
Housing costs are a parallel measure, not an explanation
The Data Book figures cited by KHON2 put Hawaiʻi’s 2025 statewide median resale price at $1.01 million for a single-family home and $539,000 for a condominium, with the condo median down 3.8%. A separate analysis by the University of Hawaiʻi Economic Research Organization reports a 1% rise in single-family prices and a 2% decline in condo prices in 2025. Its factbook also says the share of median income needed to afford a median-priced home fell for a second year after peaking in 2023, and median asking rent in Craigslist listings declined from $2,200 in 2024 to $2,128 in 2025. These are distinct reported measures; neither the population figures nor the housing figures alone establish that one trend caused the other.
Costs also differ across counties. UHERO’s analysis puts Maui County’s 2025 median single-family price near $1.2 million, with Honolulu and Kauaʻi near $1.1 million. For a limited view of housing options on Oʻahu, Honolulu’s Department of Housing and Land Management provides a Subsidized Housing Explorer. The department says the inventory covers price-restricted units, but excludes planned or under-construction housing and housing that is affordable without being price-restricted.
Taken together, the state estimates document population decline and aging alongside high housing prices, while UHERO reports some recent easing in selected affordability and rent measures. The available figures do not show how those changes relate for individual households, or whether the statewide population factors apply uniformly across counties.
