Governor Kathy Hochul holds a 14-point lead over Republican challenger Bruce Blakeman with early voting set to begin Saturday, but the margin has tightened since last month, according to a new poll of likely New York voters. The Democratic incumbent led 55% to 41% in a survey of 1,167 likely voters conducted October 15 through 19, with a 3.8-percentage-point margin of error.
A Narrowing Race Heading Into Early Voting
The new numbers mark a shift from Quinnipiac University's September 23 survey, which had Hochul ahead 58% to 39%, a 19-point spread, according to news10.com. Four percent of voters remained undecided, as reported by City & State New York. Early voting in New York runs from Saturday through November 1, ahead of the November 3 election, per the New York State Board of Elections.
Hochul, the Democratic incumbent seeking a second four-year term, is squaring off against Blakeman, the Nassau County executive. The New York Post noted that Hochul spoke at a press conference in New York on Tuesday, while Blakeman held a news conference at the 100 Centre Street criminal court building on Wednesday.
Cost of Living Drives Hochul's Base, Immigration Powers Blakeman's
The survey found cost of living was the top issue for 22% of respondents, followed by the economy at 19% and immigration at 13%, per the station's report. Hochul led Blakeman 71% to 24% among voters who named cost of living as their chief concern, and 72% to 27% among those prioritizing the economy, the outlet reported. Blakeman, meanwhile, led 71% to 28% among voters who ranked immigration as their top issue.
The geographic split was stark. Hochul dominated in New York City, 70% to 24%, while Blakeman led 52% to 46% upstate and narrowly edged ahead 48% to 47% in the suburbs, according to the same account. Blakeman also held a 51% to 44% advantage among independent voters, according to City & State New York.
Enthusiasm Gap Favors the Challenger
Even as he trails, Blakeman's supporters expressed far more enthusiasm than Hochul's. Sixty-five percent of Blakeman backers said they felt very enthusiastic about their candidate, compared with just 33% of Hochul supporters, the report found. Quinnipiac also noted that nearly a quarter of voters remained unfamiliar with Blakeman, according to the Quinnipiac University Poll.
The cost of living and the economy were identified as the top concerns weighing on New York voters overall, the same poll found. That framing echoes the dynamic shaping the race: pocketbook anxiety benefiting the incumbent, while immigration fuels enthusiasm for her challenger.
How This Compares to Other Recent Surveys
Quinnipiac's latest numbers are not an outlier. Gothamist reported that recent public-opinion polls have shown Hochul with anywhere from a 9- to 19-point lead over Blakeman. A Siena University survey released the same day as the latest Quinnipiac results found Hochul with a more modest nine-point lead, according to POLITICO.
Part of the discrepancy may come down to methodology. Quinnipiac's sample assumed 38% of this year's voters would come from New York City, while Siena's sample assumed just 30%, POLITICO reported. The city has historically been Hochul's strongest base, so assumptions about turnout there can swing a poll's topline numbers considerably.
The pattern recalls 2022, when Siena found Hochul's lead over then-Rep. Lee Zeldin shrinking from 17 points to 11 points in the campaign's final stretch, per the same POLITICO account. Hochul ultimately won that race by about six points. Whether this year's contest tightens further before November 3 remains to be seen, but for now, Hochul still holds a comfortable statewide edge over Blakeman heading into early voting.
