The forecast provided for Honolulu calls for mostly clear skies Sunday morning, with a chance of isolated showers before noon and a high near 85. It describes northeast winds of 12 to 17 mph, with gusts up to 24 mph, and says showers are more likely in windward and mauka areas than in leeward Honolulu. These forecast details have not been independently verified against a current official weather product and should be treated as provisional.
The supplied outlook describes a similar pattern Monday, then increasing rain chances Tuesday night into Wednesday as winds weaken and shift more southeasterly. It calls for scattered showers Wednesday, occasional showers Wednesday night, and an 80% chance of rain Thursday, with elevated chances continuing Friday. The location and amount of any heavier rainfall remain uncertain; the supplied evidence does not independently confirm these day-by-day details.
Rainfall patterns are context, not a local forecast
The University of Hawaiʻi Rainfall Atlas of Hawaiʻi describes a broad climatological pattern: mean rainfall is generally higher on windward mountain slopes and lower in leeward lowlands. That helps explain why rainfall can vary across the islands, but it does not establish how much rain Honolulu will receive this week, or show a trend in extreme rainfall.
A separate historical example illustrates why past events should not be treated as a forecast. The National Weather Service Honolulu documented significant rainfall on Oʻahu and the Big Island from January 24 through 26, 2021, associated with an upper-level low passing south of the state. That event had a documented weather setup distinct from the provisional outlook here; it does not establish what impacts this week may bring.
