Ken Paxton, the Republican nominee for U.S. Senate in Texas, privately told a room of conservative donors and lobbyists in Washington that President Trump's midterm convention in Dallas had hurt him politically — and that his poll numbers, along with everyone else's, dropped afterward. The remarks, caught on a recording made at a private fund-raiser, land as multiple September surveys show Democrat James Talarico either leading Paxton outright or locked with him in a dead heat.
According to The New York Times, Paxton was recorded saying of the convention's fallout: “it dropped our numbers. Everybody's numbers dropped. Right now, yeah, not good.” The fund-raiser was attended by roughly a dozen people, and the recording was made by an attendee who later provided it to the Times.
Three other people with knowledge of the event confirmed Paxton's attendance, the paper's report notes, and two of them recalled that he was asked directly about the convention's impact, with one recalling his answer about its negative consequences. The person who supplied the recording opposes Paxton's campaign and was granted anonymity because the remarks were made in private.
What Happened at the Dallas Convention
The comments trace back to a two-day Republican gathering in Dallas on Wednesday and Thursday, September 9 and 10, where Vice President JD Vance delivered the keynote address before Trump closed the convention as its final speaker, as The Texas Tribune reported. During his remarks, Trump joked about Paxton's appearance, clothing and speaking style. He also made clear he was not overly concerned with his relationship to Paxton personally, saying, “I really don't care. I don't have to speak to him. He's going to vote the way we would vote.”
Chron also covered the leaked audio, framing the recording as catching Paxton admitting the GOP event had tanked his numbers. A Paxton campaign spokesperson, Nick Maddux, denied that Paxton made the alleged comments about Trump's impact on his campaign, and said separately that Paxton's numbers had improved since early September and that the campaign's latest internal poll showed him leading by three points. Maddux also said Paxton looked forward to campaigning alongside Trump when the president came to Texas that week.
Polls Show a Tightening Race
The private remarks surfaced amid a run of public polling that has shown the Texas Senate race narrowing considerably since Paxton's May endorsement boost from Trump. A September survey from Emerson College Polling found Talarico edging Paxton 47% to 46% among likely voters, with Talarico gaining a point and Paxton losing one compared with August. That poll surveyed 1,000 likely voters with a credibility interval of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
A Marist Poll taken later in September found an even wider gap, with Talarico leading Paxton 50% to 44% among the 1,139 registered voters it surveyed, a sample carrying a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 points. The same poll found Democrats holding a three-point edge on the generic congressional ballot in Texas, 49% to 46%, and found Trump's approval among Texas registered voters underwater at 43% approval versus 55% disapproval. Texas voters told Marist they were more likely to see their congressional vote as one against Trump (39%) than one in support of him (25%). Still, 52% of voters overall told Marist they expect Paxton to win the race despite trailing in that survey.
Other Surveys, Other Numbers
Not every recent poll tells the same story by the same margin. A Decision Desk HQ polling average had Talarico ahead of Paxton 47.4% to 43.5%, according to The Hill. A Big Data Poll taken in late September found a smaller four-point gap, with 43.6% backing Talarico and 39.3% backing Paxton. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report currently rates the race a toss-up.
Trump has reaffirmed his endorsement of Paxton's candidacy multiple times in recent months, and while traveling in Ireland the following week, he called the Dallas convention very successful and said it had really helped Paxton — a characterization at odds with what Paxton reportedly told donors in Washington. In Dallas, Trump also said Paxton deserved to be Texas's next senator. The dossier does not resolve which account of the convention's effect on Paxton's standing is accurate, and Maddux's denial of the alleged remarks stands unaddressed by any further campaign statement in the available record.
Texas voters will settle the matter when the 2026 midterm elections are held on November 3.
