Lincoln officials are trying to figure out how much a wave of potential new housing could strain the town's schools, and the early math is sobering: roughly 661 new housing units could be built over the next five to 10 years, a figure that could translate to about 217 additional students filling classroom seats across the district.
The estimate comes from Lincoln's town planner and was shared with town and school officials earlier in October, according to upriseri.com, which reported on a town council meeting held Oct. 20. The figure represents potential growth, not a certainty, over the next five to 10 years, per Councilor Arthur “TJ” Russo's report on an Oct. 1 meeting between town and school officials. That earlier gathering brought together council members, planning and zoning officials, administration officials and school officials to dig into how new development could reshape enrollment.
A Preliminary Breakdown, School by School
The preliminary student estimate is broken down by building: 67 additional students at Lincoln Central Elementary School, 45 at Northern Elementary School and 53 at Saylesville Elementary School, according to the same upriseri.com report. Russo described the 217-student projection as conservative. Council members discussed concerns about development and open space.
Town and school officials met on Oct. 1 to discuss how new development could affect enrollment.
A Deeper Study Is Planned
Lincoln Public Schools is planning a full demographic study to examine the district's future needs. NESDEC offers an Annual Enrollment Projection Service.
Lincoln's enrollment increased 4 percent between 2019 and 2023, the second-highest increase among Rhode Island districts, according to The Valley Breeze, even as statewide enrollment fell by more than 7,000 students, or over 5 percent, between October 2019 and October 2023, with 31 of the state's 36 districts seeing declines.
Facilities Already Feeling the Pressure
The district added 59 students from the previous school year alone, the outlet reported. WPRI reported that Northern Elementary School, which serves roughly 500 students, is getting a full HVAC upgrade as the district works to keep pace with growth. The station also noted that Lincoln has seen more students getting dropped off by car since the COVID-19 pandemic, and that the district continues to grapple with pandemic-related learning loss, with notable social-emotional impacts reported among fourth- and ninth-grade students.
One Proposed Project Looms Large
Among the developments factoring into the broader housing picture is the proposed Washington Highway Apartments, a 250-unit residential project with 25 percent of units designated as affordable housing. The project would sit on vacant land along George Washington Highway behind the Lincoln Mall if it moves forward, the newspaper's coverage of state funding for regional housing developments noted.
At the Oct. 20 town council meeting, council members raised concerns about development, open space and water infrastructure.
The potential effects of Lincoln's housing growth on school enrollment remain a projection, with the fuller demographic study still to come.
