A new national poll shows Republican voters converging around Vice President JD Vance as their preferred 2028 presidential nominee, while Democratic voters remain scattered across a crowded, undecided field. The survey found 33% of Republican primary voters backing Vance. On the Democratic side, no candidate broke out of single digits except former Vice President Kamala Harris, who led with just 12% support — and a striking 45% of Democratic voters said they simply haven't decided.
The poll, conducted by the New York Times and Siena University, interviewed 3,494 voters from October 12 to 19, with a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 1.9 percentage points. Notably, 8% of Republicans named Trump himself as their preferred nominee even though he is constitutionally ineligible to run again, the Times reported.
Democrats' Crowded, Undecided Field
Behind Harris, California Gov. Gavin Newsom ranked second among Democratic primary voters with 9% support, followed by former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg at 7% and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 6%. The October numbers mark a shift from earlier surveys: Newsweek points out that multiple early polls had “consistently shown Harris as the frontrunner,” while an Emerson College survey conducted in July found Buttigieg leading with 19% and Newsom close behind at 17%.
Harris herself has not said whether she will run. Speaking about her 2028 plans, she said, “There's so many factors,” according to CNN. Her potential rivals, however, are not waiting around — CNN reports that Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear has discussed launching a campaign shortly after the Democratic Governors Association's December meeting. Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, for his part, has reportedly told people to “pick Pete Buttigieg” as the party's future nominee, per CNN.
Republicans Rally, but Not Entirely, Behind Vance
On the Republican side, 26% of voters surveyed remain undecided about their 2028 pick, even as Vance holds a clear lead. The numbers mark a reversal from a May Emerson College Polling survey reported by USA Today, which had Vance and Rubio essentially tied at 36% and 35% respectively. That survey showed Rubio climbing 15 points from a February Emerson poll while Vance's support fell 16 points over the same stretch — a swing that underscores just how unsettled the race remains more than two years out.
Neither Vance nor Rubio has formally announced a run, the USA Today report notes.
A Field Still Taking Shape
The shifting numbers highlight how fluid the early 2028 landscape remains on both sides. A February Echelon Insights poll of 443 likely voters, cited by Newsweek, had shown Harris leading the Democratic field with 36% support. Those early polling results have not translated into a clear Democratic frontrunner in the new Times/Siena survey.
The shifting numbers highlight how fluid the early 2028 landscape remains on both sides. Voters in both parties — and potential candidates themselves — are navigating a primary landscape that, for now, is defined more by indecision than by any settled consensus.
