A new poll of Latino voters shows Mayor Karen Bass opening up a 12-point lead over City Councilmember Nithya Raman in the final weeks of the Los Angeles mayoral runoff, a finding that cuts directly against an earlier survey showing Raman with a commanding advantage in the same demographic. The numbers, which come from a poll commissioned by a pro-Bass independent expenditure group, land as both campaigns scramble to court Latino voters expected to cast close to 30% of all ballots in the November 3 election.
Two Polls, Two Very Different Pictures
The new poll, conducted by BSP Research on behalf of Unidos con Karen Bass, surveyed 602 Latino voters from October 1 through this week, finding 40% support for Bass compared to 28% for Raman, with 32% still undecided, according to the New York Post. That is a sharp reversal from the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll, co-sponsored with the Los Angeles Times and conducted September 15 through 20, which found Raman leading Bass among Latino voters 45% to 21%. Anthony Rendon, who has endorsed Bass, described the new BSP findings as showing real momentum heading into the final weeks of the campaign, per the same report.
The Berkeley poll showed a possible Raman edge among younger Latino voters. The BSP poll found Bass performing strongly among older Latino voters, with 53% of those aged 50 and older backing Bass compared to 17% supporting Raman; voters under 40 were evenly divided at 35% apiece. It also showed Bass carrying a 32-percentage-point lead among Spanish-speaking voters specifically. The Post reported that it reached out to Matt Barreto of BSP Research for comment on the discrepancy between the two surveys.
A Citywide Race That Already Had Raman Ahead
The dueling Latino-specific numbers arrive against the backdrop of a broader citywide poll that had already reshaped the contours of the race. That same UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies survey, co-sponsored with the Los Angeles Times, found Raman holding an 11-point lead over Bass among all likely voters, 39% to 28%, with 33% still undecided and Bass saddled with a 63% unfavorable rating. The 2,150-voter survey, with a 3-point margin of error, had suggested Raman's strength with Latino voters was part of a broader citywide advantage — a framing the new BSP poll now complicates.
Geographic splits in the BSP poll also varied by neighborhood, with Bass's Latino support strongest in downtown LA, South Los Angeles, and the San Fernando Valley, while Raman led among Latino voters in West Los Angeles. East Los Angeles Latino voters remained especially up for grabs, with 44% undecided there, per the Post's report. Those shifting precinct-level dynamics echo what the Los Angeles Times found when it analyzed June primary results, reporting that Bass won 35 Latino-majority neighborhoods, including Boyle Heights and Pacoima, compared to just seven for Raman.
Sharp Exchanges Over Police and Immigration
The competing polls landed amid an increasingly combative stretch of the campaign, with Bass and Raman clashing over police, immigration enforcement, and what Bass has characterized as Raman's judgment. Bass called Raman incredibly irresponsible on Thursday and questioned whether Raman was ready to lead Los Angeles, according to the Post's reporting, after Raman appeared in a social media video, since deleted, that featured the words “only you can stop fascist liars.” Raman, a democratic socialist who was elected in 2020 as the first South Asian woman on the Los Angeles City Council, holds a master's degree in urban planning from MIT and co-founded the SELAH Neighborhood Homeless Coalition, according to The Times of India.
Money and Muscle Pour Into the Final Stretch
The fight for Latino voters is playing out alongside a flood of outside spending that dwarfs the candidates' own war chests. A PAC backed by the Western States Regional Council of Carpenters has raised $6 million to support Raman, while the Los Angeles Police Protective League has spent nearly $2.8 million backing Bass, according to the Los Angeles Wave Newspaper Group. The police union also launched a 30-second broadcast ad in September attacking Raman over her votes against Municipal Code 41.18, the city's anti-camping ordinance restricting homeless encampments near schools and parks, as previously reported by attack-ad coverage from Hoodline.
Direct fundraising between the two campaigns, by contrast, remains nearly deadlocked. Disclosures through September 19 showed Raman raising about $2.53 million in contributions and city matching funds compared to $2.51 million for Bass, the Wave reported in the same account. Organized labor itself has split along similar lines, with the Los Angeles County Federation of Labor backing Bass while the Carpenters union shifted its support to Raman, a divide Hoodline detailed in its earlier coverage of the union endorsement fight.
Latinos remain the largest ethnic group in Los Angeles, and with roughly a third of surveyed Latino voters still undecided in the BSP poll, both campaigns are likely to intensify outreach in the final weeks. The race marks the first general election runoff for an incumbent Los Angeles mayor since 2005, after Bass finished first in the June primary with 34.3% of the vote to Raman's 28.5%, short of the majority needed to avoid a runoff under the city's election rules, according to Ballotpedia.
