New York small-business owners are grappling with a familiar but worsening combination this fall: workers who are hard to find, prices that keep climbing, and loans that cost more to carry. A new survey paints a picture of Main Street confidence sliding below its historical norm, driven largely by labor shortages, inflation, and higher borrowing costs weighing on owners across the state.
The National Federation of Independent Business surveyed 5,000 businesses nationally in September and received 411 responses, an 8.2% response rate, according to mytwintiers.com. The resulting NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell 0.8 points, from 98.7 in August to 97.9 in September, landing just below its 52-year average of 98. Meanwhile, the NFIB Uncertainty Index climbed one point to 90, a full 22 points above its historical average of 68 — a gauge of how often owners say they are uncertain or simply do not know what is coming next.
Finding Workers Remains the Top Headache
For the third straight month, not finding workers ranked as the number one problem for small businesses nationwide, rising three points from August to 26% in September, per the same outlet's reporting. In New York, NFIB-New York pointed to weaker sales, supply-chain issues, and the inflated cost of materials as additional strains on local businesses, on top of the labor crunch.
The hiring numbers underscore just how tight the labor market has become. In September, 51% of small businesses tried to hire, down five points from August, while 45% of owners reported few or no qualified applicants. After seasonal adjustment, 32% of businesses could not fill all of their open positions — a sign that even owners willing to hire are coming up empty.
Inflation and Borrowing Costs Pile On
Inflation was the top problem for 20% of small-business owners in September, up four points from August and nearly triple its 7% historical average, the report notes. Among those surveyed, 38% said they had raised prices over the prior three months, while just 8% cut them. The average interest rate on short-term business loans also rose, climbing 0.7 points in September to 8.2%.
Ashley Ranslow, NFIB's New York director, tied the pressures together in a statement carried by the same outlet: “Labor challenges, higher costs, steep taxes, and rising interest rates continue to put pressure on New York's small business owners.” A New York agricultural business owner echoed that sentiment, telling the publication plainly, “Our biggest costs are labor, fuel (energy), and insurance.”
Few Owners See a Good Time to Expand
The hesitation shows up clearly in expansion plans. Only 7% of small-business owners called September a good time to expand, down five points from August, while 48% said it was a bad time and 31% weren't sure, according to the survey data reported by mytwintiers.com. As NEWS10 ABC reported, the National Federation of Independent Business framed the findings as evidence that national and state-level economic pressures are stalling Main Street growth in New York.
Not every account of the survey lines up neatly. According to cnycentral.com, the share of owners rating current business health as good fell from 57% to 48% in a single month, while the share rating it as only fair rose from 28% to 35%. A separate account from cascadebusnews.com put the fair rating at 35%, up seven points, and the good rating at 48%, down nine points — slightly different figures describing the same shift in sentiment.
Beyond the health ratings, cnycentral.com reported that a seasonally adjusted net 31% of owners raised average selling prices in September, unchanged from August and well above the historical average of net 14%. A net 31% also planned to raise prices going forward, up three points from August. Labor quality or availability remained the single most-cited issue overall, at 26%, ranking first for the third consecutive month, per cascadebusnews.com's account of the same survey.
Not every small-business owner describes the climate the same way. Indiana clothing store owner Danny Reynolds called the business climate “erratic” but said he's “cautiously optimistic,” telling cnycentral.com that his bridal business is performing well and his menswear line is growing enough that he's considering expansion — a reminder that even amid the broader pressures, individual outcomes still vary.
