Democrats are padding their leads in Ohio's marquee statewide races heading into November, according to a newly released Bowling Green State University poll that shows Amy Acton up 6 points over Vivek Ramaswamy for governor and Sherrod Brown up 6 points over Jon Husted for U.S. Senate. The survey also found President Donald Trump's approval rating among Ohio voters sitting at just 39%, with more than half of respondents disapproving of his job performance.
The poll, conducted online with YouGov from Sept. 29 through Oct. 9 and surveying 1,000 likely Ohio voters, found Acton leading Ramaswamy 50% to 44%, while Brown led Husted 48% to 42%, according to Bowling Green State University. The margin of error was plus or minus 3.95 percentage points. The university ran the survey under the direction of professors Robert Alexander, Melissa K. Miller, David Jackson, and Joshua Boston, in partnership with YouGov.
Both margins grew since BGSU's September poll, when Acton and Brown each held only 3-point edges, a shift WLWT notes means Democrats have led in both races for at least a month now. Brown's gain specifically moved from a 3-point lead in September to the current 6-point spread, and Acton's climbed the same amount over the same period, as The Hill reported.
Voters Still Bet on the GOP Despite the Numbers
Even with Democrats ahead on paper, most Ohioans surveyed don't think they'll actually win. The poll found most respondents expect Ramaswamy to beat Acton, 55% to 43%, while they see the Senate race as a dead heat at 48%-48% between Husted and Brown, per the same BGSU survey. That expectations gap — Democrats leading the numbers but trailing the perception — has been a consistent thread in Ohio polling this cycle.
It lines up with other recent surveys. A Marist University poll found Brown up eight points over Husted among registered voters and Acton up six over Ramaswamy, according to the Ohio Capital Journal. An August Fox News poll, meanwhile, had Brown ahead by eight points but Ramaswamy actually leading Acton by two, according to NBC4i. Decision Desk HQ, as of this past Friday, gave Brown just a 53% chance of actually flipping the Senate seat, the Hill reported.
Trump's Approval Slips as Economy Dominates Voter Concerns
The economy remains Ohio voters' top worry by far, cited by 39% of respondents in the BGSU poll, followed by inflation at 30% and government corruption and health care tied at 28% each. Trump's net approval in the survey sat at negative 19 points, with 39% approving of his performance and 58% disapproving, BGSU found. A separate Marist poll put his approval among Ohioans at 42%, the Ohio Capital Journal reported, while that same poll found 41% of voters said their midterm vote would be cast against Trump, compared to just 25% who said they'd vote in support of him.
There are signs of cracks in Trump's 2024 coalition, too. The BGSU poll found 24% of 2024 Trump voters now say they regret that vote either to some degree or a great deal. Democrats also held a 59%-to-41% edge in voter motivation, though BGSU noted that gap has narrowed since earlier polling, and Ohioans preferred Democratic congressional candidates over Republicans by 49% to 45% on the generic ballot.
How Acton and Brown Stack Up on Trust and Character
On personal qualities, Acton outpaced Ramaswamy on caring about ordinary people, 48% to 30%, and on honesty, 42% to 34%, though the two were tied at 41% apiece on competence, according to BGSU's findings. Brown led Husted across the board — on caring about ordinary people (44% to 28%), honesty (39% to 29%), and competence (41% to 34%).
The contest sits against a broader backdrop: Kamala Harris lost Ohio by 11 points in 2024, and Brown lost his own Senate seat that same year by 3.5 points, according to the Hill's reporting. Ohio has voted Republican at the presidential level for a decade after decades as a bellwether swing state. A September BGSU survey had already shown Democratic candidates leading by 3 points in both races, and YouGov's broader polling across several states — including Ohio — conducted from Sept. 18 through Oct. 5 similarly found Democratic candidates ahead of their Republican opponents.
Ohio voters head to the polls on Nov. 3.
