Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro is cruising toward reelection with a 25-point lead over his Republican challenger, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll that found 59% of likely voters backing the Democratic incumbent compared with 34% supporting state Treasurer Stacy Garrity. Two percent of respondents said they favored Libertarian candidate Ken Krawchuk, while 5% remained undecided.
CBS News covered the survey. It questioned 1,159 likely Pennsylvania voters from October 1 through Monday, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points, according to Quinnipiac University. The numbers paint a lopsided picture of the governor's race less than a month before Election Day, with independents breaking hard for Shapiro — 62% to 23%, per the same poll.
Shapiro's overall standing with voters looks strong beyond the head-to-head matchup too. The poll found his job approval rating at 63%, with just 30% disapproving, and 55% of likely voters said they view him favorably, against 29% who see him unfavorably.
Garrity Still a Mystery to Nearly Half of Voters
Garrity's numbers tell a very different story. Only 22% of likely voters viewed her favorably, while 32% held an unfavorable opinion — and a striking 44% said they simply hadn't heard enough about her to form a judgment, the poll found. That name-recognition gap could help explain why she's struggling to close the distance with an incumbent who remains broadly popular across party lines.
The Quinnipiac survey also touched on broader political mood in the state: 54% of likely voters said they'd want to see Democrats win control of the U.S. House, compared with 39% who wanted Republicans in charge, according to the same release. It's worth noting this was Quinnipiac's first survey of likely voters in the 2026 cycle, meaning it can't be directly compared with the firm's earlier polls of registered voters, as JNS reported.
A Consistent Pattern Across Multiple Pollsters
The Quinnipiac numbers aren't an outlier. A New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena poll conducted Sept. 15–21 found Shapiro ahead of Garrity by 21 percentage points among likely voters, according to the Philadelphia Inquirer. That same Siena Research Institute poll put the race at 58% to 38%, a 20-point margin, per the Siena Research Institute. An August poll showed a 16-point advantage. The New York Times notes Shapiro has held double-digit leads in every general-election survey of the race so far.
The Inquirer also points out that Shapiro's current lead over Garrity exceeds the 13-point edge he held over Doug Mastriano in an October 2022 New York Times/Siena poll — a race Shapiro ultimately won by nearly 15 points, or about 800,000 votes. Spotlight PA has similarly described Shapiro as holding a commanding lead in this year's race, noting a late-August poll that found 60% of Pennsylvania voters viewed him favorably.
How the Race Has Shifted Since Summer
The raw lead was 25 points in October, compared with 13 points in July, but the polls used different voter populations and do not establish a comparable trend. In July, the firm's survey of 895 registered Pennsylvania voters — conducted July 9–13 with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 percentage points — found Shapiro leading Garrity 53% to 40%. That marked a shift from February, when Shapiro held 55% support to Garrity's 37%, according to the same release.
Because different surveys sample different populations — some registered voters, others likely voters — their exact percentages shouldn't be read as a single continuous trend line. Still, the direction across pollsters has been consistent: Shapiro entering the fall campaign with a wide, durable lead over a challenger many voters say they still don't know well.
