Tampa International Airport reported mostly cloudy skies and a temperature of 85 degrees at 11:53 a.m. Thursday, with a heat index of 91. The forecast calls for a high near 89, a heat index up to 97 and scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, with showers more likely after 4 p.m. The latest Tampa observation and afternoon forecast replace the earlier morning conditions.
Afternoon Storms Could Bring Heavy Downpours
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast this afternoon, with showers more likely after 4 p.m. The National Weather Service Tampa Bay office puts the chance of rain at 60%, with a tenth to a quarter-inch of rainfall expected in some spots and higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. The updated Tampa point forecast gives the current timing, rain chance and rainfall estimate.
East-southeast winds will run 6 to 12 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. The combination of heat, humidity and passing storms could make outdoor plans feel sticky before a downpour briefly changes the mood.
Wet Pattern Continues Into The Weekend
Thursday night carries a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms, with skies turning mostly cloudy and temperatures dipping to around 74 degrees. Friday brings another warm afternoon near 88 degrees, with showers and isolated thunderstorms and a 50% chance of rain. The latest Tampa forecast updates the rain chances and timing.
The forecast calls for about a 70% rain chance Saturday, with shower and storm coverage expected to continue through Sunday. Highs should stay near 89 degrees, while overnight lows remain in the mid-70s, so the weekend forecast favors flexible plans and a quick check of the sky before heading out.
The pattern reflects a broader shift in the atmosphere: high pressure is sustaining moist easterly and southeasterly flow, while a frontal boundary is expected to stall over the region early next week. The National Weather Service Tampa Bay office expects storm coverage to expand from scattered to numerous through the weekend to numerous or widespread early to midweek, with increased cloud cover helping temperatures ease.
Cooler, Stormier Start To Next Week
The unsettled pattern strengthens Monday, when showers and thunderstorms are likely and highs reach the lower to middle 80s. Tuesday and Wednesday look notably wetter, with numerous to widespread storm coverage and rain chances in the 70%–90% range, while highs ease into the low-to-mid 80s.
The rain signal comes with an unusually moist air mass: the Tampa Bay office measured morning moisture levels above the 90th percentile, and its outlook projects 3 to 5 inches of rain across western Florida over seven days. For Tuesday and Wednesday, forecasters put the chance of at least an inch of rain in a 24-hour period at 40% to 60% across most of the area. The office notes much of the region is also experiencing moderate to extreme drought. Those rainfall estimates and drought conditions are part of the latest forecast discussion.
The National Weather Service Tampa Bay office listed no watches or warnings for Florida or Gulf waters in its Thursday afternoon update. Boaters should still exercise caution amid elevated winds and seas through Friday. The office’s update says small craft should exercise caution, and the coastal waters forecast notes winds and seas can be higher near thunderstorms.
