Sen. Ted Cruz stood alongside Ashley Hinson at a Council Bluffs bowling alley Thursday, telling a crowd that chanted “Fight for Iowa” that control of the U.S. Senate could hinge on this one race. With Election Day just days away, the Texas Republican's visit underscored how high the stakes have become in a contest both parties now consider a true toss-up.
Cruz Brings National Weight To A Tightening Race
As reported by WOWT, Cruz told the crowd the Iowa Senate seat is in the balance, part of a closing argument he has delivered across the country. He has spent two weeks on the road campaigning for candidates in Alaska, Georgia, the Carolinas and Michigan, according to the station's report, and called Hinson a strong candidate during his stop. Cruz, who won the Iowa caucus in 2016, said he would discuss 2028 only after the midterms, insisting his focus right now is on the Nov. 3 elections.
Hinson, the Republican Senate candidate seeking the open seat currently held by Sen. Joni Ernst, is running against Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek of Council Bluffs. The race has already drawn heavyweight GOP surrogates; Cruz appeared with Hinson in August at her annual Ashley's BBQ Bash fundraiser in Clive, where more than 1,000 people turned out, according to Iowa Capital Dispatch. At that event, Cruz described Iowa as a battleground state where control of both the House and Senate runs through its voters.
A Canceled Trump Rally And A Closing Pitch
The visit came a day after the Republican National Committee said President Donald Trump had canceled a planned rally in Dubuque, per the WOWT report. Hinson said the cancellation would not change how she approaches the campaign's final stretch, telling supporters she plans to earn every vote over the next four or five days.
Hinson has also leaned on her family in recent appearances, saying she entered the race because of her two teenage sons, ages fifteen and thirteen. On policy, the station's report notes she has campaigned on making federal tax cuts permanent to ease rising costs for families. During an earlier Council Bluffs stop covered by the Council Bluffs Nonpareil, Hinson said she had heard voter concerns about housing and water infrastructure across Iowa, and that she wants to address housing costs by reviewing permitting requirements that can slow construction.
Polls Split As Spending Shatters Records
Just how close is this race? It depends on which survey you trust. A Suffolk University poll reported by Iowa Capital Dispatch in August showed Hinson leading Turek 45% to 41% among likely Iowa voters, within the margin of error. But a later Suffolk University poll of 500 likely midterm voters, taken Oct. 1-4 and reported by USA Today, found Turek narrowly ahead, 48% to 44%, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 points.
That same USA Today-reported survey found independents breaking hard for Turek, 58% to 30%, and showed Hinson with a net negative favorable rating of five points compared to Turek's net positive rating of seven. Among voters who had shifted away from Hinson, one in four cited her association with Trump as the reason, according to the outlet. A separate review of a dozen preferred New York Times polls found no clear leader at all, with seven favoring Hinson and five favoring Turek, as reported by WOWT.
Candidates Keep Crisscrossing The State
The money pouring into the race has been just as striking as the polling whiplash. The contest had generated more than $90 million in ad spending through the end of September, Iowa Capital Dispatch reports, and the Cook Political Report has shifted its rating from leans Republican to a toss-up. Political analyst Dave Price told WOWT the spending is on pace to be unprecedented for an Iowa Senate race, driven in part by outside money flowing into the state.
Both campaigns have been crossing paths across western Iowa in recent days. Hinson campaigned in Glenwood with Ernst, who is not seeking re-election, while Turek held his own event in Council Bluffs, per the same WOWT account. With both sides expected to keep crisscrossing the state through Election Day, Iowa voters will have the final say when polls open at 7 a.m. and close at 9 p.m. on Tuesday, Nov. 3.
