Federal flight restrictions went up over Palm Beach County for the weekend, a telltale sign that Donald Trump was heading back to Mar-a-Lago for the first time since early May. The visit lines up with the Beach Club's season-opening party, and it kicks off a stretch of travel that will bring the president back to southwest Florida on Oct. 23 for a rally meant to juice early voting for two Republican candidates locked in closer-than-expected races.
Flight Restrictions Signal a Season-Opening Return
The Federal Aviation Administration issued three temporary flight restrictions in Palm Beach County for the weekend of Oct. 16 through Oct. 18, according to WPBF, which reported the TFRs signal Trump may visit his Mar-a-Lago resort for the weekend. The Palm Beach Post reported Trump appeared set to make his first trip of the season to his Mar-a-Lago Club, with his most recent visit dating back to May 1-2. The timing lines up with the season-opening party for Mar-a-Lago's Beach Club on Oct. 17, which the club listed as featuring food, a DJ and cocktails, per the same report.
The Palm Beach stop is just one stretch in a packed travel schedule. Axios, in reporting authored by Marc Caputo, detailed that Trump planned to overnight at Mar-a-Lago after an afternoon rally in Dalton, Georgia, before continuing on to a rally at Northern Kentucky University's arena in Highland Heights and a MAGA Inc. candlelight dinner in Palm Beach, then back to the White House before rallies in Wichita, Greenville, Clemson and Sioux City over the following days.
An Oct. 23 Return Aimed at Early Voters
Trump is scheduled to return to Florida for an Oct. 23 rally alongside gubernatorial candidate Byron Donalds and Senate candidate Ashley Moody, according to Axios. The outlet reported the rally is designed to encourage in-person early voting in southwest Florida, a region the reporting describes as the heart of Donalds' district and among the state's solid Republican strongholds. Florida's midterm elections were, as of the article's publication, 18 days away.
Axios reported that Republicans are concerned about enthusiasm and turnout in Florida, even though the state is considered among the GOP's least problematic battlegrounds this cycle. A top Florida Republican consultant cited by the outlet said the coming week is crunch time and that the political environment is not great, while still expressing hope that Trump's rally would work because, in the consultant's words, the president turns out the Republican base more than anyone.
Vote-By-Mail Numbers Flip the Old Script
The dynamic driving that urgency is a reversal from the GOP's traditional playbook. Axios noted that Republicans used to dominate mail voting in Florida before Trump began demonizing the practice in 2020, pushing the party to rely more heavily on early in-person turnout instead. The state's registered Republicans still outnumber registered Democrats by more than 1.5 million voters, according to Axios and separately reported by FLORIDA TODAY, which quoted a strategist saying the party needs to activate that registration advantage.
But as of 11 a.m. on Oct. 14, Florida Democrats had returned more vote-by-mail ballots than Republicans — 264,381 to 224,062 — according to Tallahassee Democrat. The same report pointed to the primary as a preview of the method split: 573,172 Democrats voted by mail compared with 475,839 Republicans, while 448,532 Republicans voted early in person versus 305,496 Democrats. The deadline to request a mail-in ballot for the general election is 5 p.m. on Oct. 22, and the mandatory early-voting period runs Oct. 24-31, the outlet reported. Florida's general election falls on Nov. 3.
Local voters in Donalds' southwest Florida base will have an even earlier window. Lee County is offering early voting from Oct. 19 through Oct. 31, according to Lee County Supervisor of Elections, with the Commissioner John E. Manning Government Complex listed among the county's voting sites.
Polls Diverge on How Close the Races Really Are
Just how much ground Republicans need to make up depends on which survey you believe. A Stetson University poll conducted Oct. 1-9 found Donalds leading Democrat David Jolly 52% to 41% among modeled likely voters, with Moody holding an identical 52% to 41% edge over Democrat Angie Nixon in the Senate race, according to Stetson University. That same survey found Florida's generic congressional ballot favoring Republicans 50% to 41%, and Trump's approval nearly split at 50% to 49% among likely voters. Stetson's Kelly Smith said turnout remains an important part of the picture as Election Day approaches.
Other surveys tell a tighter story. Newsweek reported a Change Research poll conducted Oct. 8-10 found Donalds and Jolly tied at 47% each, while a St. Pete Polls survey from Oct. 5-7 also showed them tied, at 45% apiece, according to Newsweek. A YouGov poll from Sept. 28 to Oct. 5 put Donalds ahead 47% to 45%, the outlet reported, while Newsweek also noted that Decision Desk HQ recently shifted Florida's governor's race from Toss Up to Lean Republican. Separately, a St. Pete Polls survey cited by the Miami Herald found Donalds leading Jolly 44% to 43% among likely general-election voters.
A separate NBC News survey found Trump's job performance rating evenly split among all Florida likely voters, at 48% approving and 48% disapproving, and noted that Florida Hispanic voters appear to be swinging back away from Trump even as Republican candidates maintain leads among that group, according to NBC News. The same survey found inflation and the cost of living topping the list of issues likely to influence Florida voters, cited by 30% of respondents.
Rallying the Base Before Election Day
Trump's planned Oct. 23 appearance would follow a pattern set earlier in the race. Vice President JD Vance held a rally for Donalds and other Republican candidates on Oct. 1 at the Sun 'n Fun Expo Campus in Lakeland, an event the Miami Herald reported drew thousands of party faithful, with some attendees watching from outside on screens. That rally, per the Miami Herald, came 33 days before Election Day.
An earlier report from Eaglenews.org said Trump was scheduled to appear at Hertz Arena in Fort Myers for a Make America Great Again campaign event tied to Ron DeSantis' gubernatorial run, with organizers hoping the stop would bring attention to the area and inspire Republicans to vote. With the Oct. 23 rally now set and early voting windows opening across the state, Florida Republicans are counting on another round of star power to close the gap before ballots are locked in.
