Republican Tommy Tuberville holds an 11-point lead over Democrat Doug Jones in the race for Alabama governor, according to a new poll of 500 likely voters conducted Oct. 16 and 17. The survey found 51.2% backing Tuberville compared to 40% for Jones, with 8.9% still undecided.
The poll was conducted statewide by Cygnal for Alabama Daily News and Gray Television, according to the outlet's report. Alabama Daily News put the survey's margin of error at plus or minus 4.38 percentage points, while WBRC, which also covered the poll, described the margin of error as 4%. The two outlets did not reconcile the differing figures in their reporting.
Tuberville also outpaced Jones on image, with a net favorable rating of 48% compared to Jones's net favorable rating of 42%, per the same account. The 2026 governor's race marks a rematch of the pair's 2020 Senate contest, when Tuberville defeated Jones by about 20 percentage points, as reported by The New York Times.
How Different Groups of Voters Split
The poll's internal numbers show a state still sharply divided along familiar lines. Tuberville won 91% of Republicans, while Jones captured support among Democrats, per the poll results. Independent voters broke hard for Jones, 59% to 25%, the same report notes.
Geography and age also shaped the race. Tuberville dominated rural areas 63% to 28%, while Jones led in urban areas 62% to 32%, the poll found. Older voters favored Tuberville, who led 61% to 32% among those 55 and older, while voters under 55 favored Jones 49% to 40%.
Race was one of the starkest divides in the survey: Black voters backed Jones 79% to 11%, while white voters favored Tuberville 65% to 26%, according to the poll. By region, Jones edged ahead in Montgomery, 49% to 45%, the only area that polled better for him, while Tuberville led comfortably in Birmingham, 54% to 37%, and in Huntsville, 54% to 33%.
Cost of Living Tops Concerns for Undecided Voters
Inflation and the cost of living ranked as the single biggest concern among undecided voters, cited by 47% of that group as their top issue, the poll found. Statewide, Alabama voters were slightly more likely to say the state is on the wrong track, 44.6%, than headed in the right direction, 41.9%.
Political scientist Richard Fording, quoted by al.com, said the outcome will likely hinge on turnout. “It's really going to come down to Republican turnout,” Fording said. He added that Democratic enthusiasm could rise but questioned whether it would be enough: “We'll probably see more turnout from Democrats. But the question is, is it enough?”
Where the Candidates Stand on the Issues
Tuberville has pitched himself to voters as a tax-cutter who would expand school choice and recruit business to Alabama, al.com reports. Jones, by contrast, has built his campaign around expanding Medicaid and phasing out the state's CHOOSE Act school-choice program, according to the same report.
Money has flowed heavily toward the incumbent-aligned campaign. Tuberville had raised more than $15 million and held about $6.7 million in cash on hand at the end of September, while Jones had raised about $5 million with roughly $2.1 million remaining, per al.com's reporting. The poll also tested two other potential gubernatorial figures, Will Ainsworth and Steve Marshall, whose total favorable ratings came in at 33.4% and 36.9% respectively, according to the full results published by Alabama Daily News.
