Detroit’s main weather change this week comes Wednesday morning: rain is expected after 7 a.m., with a forecast high near 69 degrees and rainfall totals of a quarter-inch to a half-inch. The National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac forecast gives Wednesday a 100% chance of precipitation. Showers may continue Wednesday night, with another tenth to quarter-inch possible.
Plan for wind, then wet roads
Tuesday offers the better window for outdoor plans, but it will be breezy. The National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac forecasts mostly sunny skies and a high near 75, with south winds of 9 to 14 mph and gusts up to 25 mph. The warmest stretch should be early afternoon through about 4 p.m.; Tuesday night is forecast to stay mild, with a low near 61.
The Tuesday high would come within one degree of Detroit’s November 3 record of 76, set in 2015, according to the National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac. That daily record is a point of comparison, not a climate normal. For Wednesday’s commute, rain and south winds that may gust to 30 mph could make travel and walking less comfortable; a rain jacket may be more practical than an umbrella in gusty conditions.
This week’s rain in historical context
The forecasted amounts are far below those recorded in two separate major regional flood events, though those comparisons do not predict what will happen this week. The National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac says the August 11, 2014 event brought 4 to 6 inches over four hours to the hardest-hit Wayne, Southern Oakland and Macomb counties, causing significant flooding and major road closures. During June 25–27, 2021, Metro Detroit received 3 to 5 inches of rain, locally 6 to 8 inches, with numerous reports of major flooding, according to the National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac. Neither event establishes that this week’s forecast will bring similar rainfall or impacts.
A broader regional measure offers additional context, not a forecast for Detroit: GLISA reports that precipitation in the heaviest 1% of storms increased by 42% in the Midwest from 1958 through 2016. That historical trend does not establish the cause or effects of this week’s rain.
Cooler weather follows
After Wednesday’s rain, Thursday is forecast to be partly sunny with a high near 64, with a slight chance of rain late at night. Friday is expected to be mostly cloudy, with a chance of light rain and a high near 59. The weekend forecast calls for highs near 55 Saturday and 56 Sunday; Sunday should be mostly sunny for much of the day, with a slight chance of rain after 1 p.m.
