Voters across Greendale, Hales Corners, most of Greenfield and slices of southwest Milwaukee and northeast Franklin are deciding a state Assembly race that could carry outsized weight in the fight for control of Wisconsin's Legislature. Republican incumbent Bob Donovan is defending his seat against Democrat Ben Brist in the 61st Assembly District, one of a handful of races both parties are watching closely heading into Election Day.
Republicans entered the election holding a 54-45 majority in the Assembly, meaning Democrats would need to flip five seats to capture control of the chamber, according to Wisconsin Public Radio. All 99 Assembly seats are up every two years, and the station reports that Donovan and Brist are vying for the 61st District seat, which covers Greendale, Hales Corners, most of Greenfield, and parts of southwest Milwaukee and northeast Franklin.
Brist advanced to the general election after beating fellow Democrats Lawanda Chambers and Brian Bock in the Aug. 11 primary, per WUWM. He and Donovan now face off in the Nov. 3 general election, with WUWM noting the district sits among the Republican-held swing seats Democrats would need to flip.
A District That's Flipped Before
The 61st District has a history of close finishes. In 2024, Donovan defeated Democrat LuAnn Bird of Hales Corners by about three percentage points, the station's report on that year's results shows. A separate 2024 Wisconsin Watch voter guide had described the district — covering Greendale, Hales Corners and parts of Greenfield — as a toss-up that leaned slightly Democratic, while a model built by researcher John Johnson rated the district at 50.8% Republican under the new maps, according to CBS 58.
That 2024 election marked the first cycle fought under Wisconsin's new district lines, which gave either party a realistic shot at winning the Assembly, per the same account from Wisconsin Public Radio. Democrats flipped 10 seats that year, yet Republicans still held on to their majority.
Money and Momentum Favor Republicans
Heading into the final stretch, Republican legislative campaign committees were outspending Democrats by more than $5 million in Assembly races, according to Wisconsin Watch. The outlet also reported that Republicans held five Assembly districts that Kamala Harris won in 2024, plus two more she lost by less than five percentage points — seats Democrats would need to pick up to have any path to a majority.
WUWM reports that Democrats would have to sweep almost all of the swing seats and hold on to a few they won narrowly in 2024 to flip the chamber. PBS Wisconsin frames the broader picture similarly, describing the Assembly as safer ground for Republicans than the state Senate, which it calls a razor-thin contest heading into 2027.
Another Tossup to Watch Downstate
District 61 isn't the only race drawing attention. In the 51st Assembly District, covering Iowa and Lafayette counties and parts of Grant and Dane counties, political observers consider the contest between longtime Republican incumbent Todd Novak and Democratic challenger Ben Gruber a tossup, according to PBS Wisconsin.
The stakes extend beyond the Assembly itself. Both parties are targeting a trifecta — control of both legislative chambers plus the governor's office — as outlined by CBS 58, the same station that first flagged the southwest suburbs as a potential tipping point for Wisconsin's Capitol.
