Lake Brantley beat Hagerty by 56 points on October 30, and yet Hagerty could still end up ranked ahead of the Patriots when Florida High School Athletic Association playoff brackets are unveiled Friday. The twist comes courtesy of a new ranking formula in its first season of determining postseason seeding statewide, and it has coaches across Central Florida grumbling about an algorithm most of them don't fully understand.
The FHSAA Board of Directors voted 10-0 earlier this year to adopt MaxPreps rankings as the sole determinant of football playoff seeding in every classification, according to the Palm Beach Post. Before the switch, the FHSAA had relied on its own power rankings to set seeds. That internal system had itself been a version of MaxPreps numbers, but one that excluded margin of victory, according to seed reporting from the Orlando Sentinel. The FHSAA Football Coaches Advisory Committee had requested the move to pure MaxPreps ratings, and the board approved it.
A 56-0 Loss That Might Not Matter
Heading into this past week, Hagerty sat just 0.29 of a decimal point behind Lake Brantley in the MaxPreps formula, close enough that a strong result could flip the two teams despite Brantley's lopsided win over the Huskies the previous Friday, per the Orlando Sentinel's reporting on the ongoing playoff picture. Hagerty (6-4) then beat a tough New Smyrna Beach team 25-20 on the road, a result that could nudge it past Brantley in the rankings even though the two teams have already played. That outcome traces back to how little weight the MaxPreps algorithm gives to head-to-head results between teams, according to the seed story's reporting.
Lake Brantley, now 5-5, had been projected as the No. 8 seed in the Class 6A Region 1 bracket before Tuesday night, but Hagerty’s Tuesday victory could change the next rankings update, expected Thursday. Brantley's resume includes losses to undefeated Seminole, Oviedo, Manatee and Lake Howell, along with an earlier-season win over Lake Mary. The five teams Brantley did beat had 15 combined wins among them, an average of three wins per opponent, based on the seed article's accounting.
Coaches Voice Frustration With the Formula
Lake Brantley head coach Garrett Kruczek said he had little confidence in the algorithm determining his team's playoff future, though he conceded that a victory over Apopka earlier in the season would probably have eased his concern, according to the seed reporting. Apopka, now 5-5 after defeating Timber Creek 49-14 in Tuesday's makeup game, has been watching the rankings shift along with everyone else. Timber Creek finished 6-4.
Marcus Neeson said he was not a fan of the algorithm, per the same seed account. Lake Mary coach Scott Perry and Osceola coach Eric Pinellas offered a more measured defense, saying the ranking system is intended to avoid rewarding teams with winning records for beating up on weaker opponents. Perry, who won the Class 7A state championship last year, said the system may ultimately push schools to schedule tougher opponents rather than padding records against overmatched teams.
Pinellas said he sympathized with teams that posted good records but missed the postseason anyway, while adding that he personally favors deciding playoff outcomes on the field rather than through a formula. The contrast is stark at his own program: Lake Mary enters the week at 2-8 but is projected as the No. 4 seed in Class 6A Region 1, while Osceola sits at 3-7 yet is forecast as the No. 3 seed in Class 5A Region 2. Lake Mary and Osceola have five combined wins between them but are both expected to be invited to the postseason, according to the seed reporting.
How Strength of Schedule Factors In
The numbers behind Lake Mary's projected seed tell the story the algorithm is built to reward. The team's eight losses came against opponents with 58 combined wins, an average of seven wins per defeated opponent, per the seed article's breakdown — a dramatically tougher slate than Brantley's five wins over teams averaging three victories each. The FHSAA has changed its playoff-qualifying systems several times in recent years, moving away from a model that simply advanced district champions and runners-up into the bracket.
Elsewhere in the region, other teams are also waiting on the numbers to settle. Gateway-Kissimmee sits at 8-2 and Poinciana at 6-4, both programs that could see their postseason fates shift depending on how the final rankings shake out.
Other Rankings Already Shifting Statewide
The volatility isn't confined to the Seminole-Lake Brantley corridor. The First Academy dropped from No. 6 to No. 15 overall in the rankings after a 35-0 loss to Lakeland, according to the Orlando Sentinel. In the same update, Seminole — which finished its regular season 10-0 — moved ahead of 9-1 DeLand for the top seed in 6A Region 1.
Final regular-season MaxPreps rankings were expected Thursday, with the FHSAA set to unveil the full 2026 playoff brackets Friday at 5 p.m., per that same Orlando Sentinel report. A separate account from Jacksonville.com found similar upheaval in the Open Division, where the latest rankings pushed Lakeland, Raines and Venice into the top eight. Jacksonville.com also reported changes to the Open Division rankings.
Until Friday's brackets are official, the projected seeds for Brantley, Hagerty, Lake Mary, Osceola and the rest remain just that — projections. Coaches and fans across Central Florida will be watching Thursday's final MaxPreps update to see whether the numbers hold or shift once more before the postseason field is locked in.
