Pat Harrigan's lead over Democratic challenger Ashley Bell in North Carolina's 10th Congressional District has narrowed to 2,485 votes as of Wednesday morning, after new provisional ballots were counted — a margin thin enough to trigger recount eligibility under state law. That puts a seat Harrigan won by 19.3 percentage points in 2024 suddenly within reach of a formal challenge.
The updated count drops Harrigan's lead to just 0.84 percentage points, according to the Charlotte Observer, which reported the race is now within the margin for a recount under state law. A separate account from a Greensboro.com report described complete but unofficial results showing Harrigan ahead by 2,485 votes, a 49.62% to 48.78% split—a difference of 0.84 percentage points, matching the margin reported by the Observer.
Harrigan, a first-term Republican U.S. representative, represents the 10th District, which includes parts of Lincoln, Catawba, Iredell, Yadkin and Forsyth counties. Bell alluded to the possibility of a recount last Sunday in a thank-you email to supporters, the Observer's report notes; in that email, she said she expected recount availability once provisional ballots were fully counted and that the final count would not be known for several more days.
What Happens at Friday's Canvass
County boards of election are scheduled to meet Friday morning for their canvass meetings, the first formal step toward certifying results. Once that happens, candidates in multicounty races — including the 10th District contest — must request a recount by Nov. 17, per the Observer's reporting.
State law allows a losing candidate in a non-statewide race to demand a recount when the margin is 1% or less of total votes cast, a threshold echoed in the North Carolina General Assembly's election statutes, though that excerpt is partial and doesn't spell out every procedural detail. The North Carolina State Board of Elections, which sets the recount schedule, says the process typically starts with tabulating results again by machine. If a sample hand-to-eye recount diverges from that machine count enough that extrapolating the difference could flip the outcome, the board says it would order a full hand-to-eye recount — a conditional scenario, not a prediction for this race specifically.
A Seat That Shifted Sharply Toward Democrats
The tightening margin is notable given how reliably Republican the district has been. Harrigan carried the seat by nearly 20 points two years ago, but it is now separated by less than a percentage point.
History suggests recounts rarely flip outcomes, however. An Associated Press investigation, cited by the Observer, found that only three statewide recounts produced a new winner nationwide from 2001 to 2023, and each of those changed-outcome recounts was decided by hundreds of votes, not thousands. North Carolina has also seen high-profile election challenges fail before: in a 2024 state Supreme Court dispute, Jefferson Griffin argued that officials had counted ballots from more than 65,000 voters who should have been deemed ineligible, a case detailed by the News & Observer. Courts did not agree with his rationale, and his effort failed.
Other Tight North Carolina Races
The 10th District isn't the only close contest statewide. In the 7th Congressional District, the Observer reported David Rouzer leading Kimberly Hardy by 2,270 votes, a 49.86% to 49.16% margin, while the News & Observer's separate account instead described Rouzer trailing Hardy by 0.7 percentage points — a discrepancy neither report resolves.
In the 5th District, Chuck Hubbard led Virginia Foxx by 335 votes, a razor-thin 48.74% to 48.62% margin, according to the same Observer report. And in the 3rd District, Raymond Smith led Republican incumbent Greg Murphy by 293 votes, a 49.43% to 49.31% split; Murphy posted a concession on social media Wednesday, per the Observer's account.
With canvass meetings set for Friday and the recount request deadline falling next Tuesday, the coming days should bring more clarity to several of North Carolina's closest congressional contests — even if, based on recent national history, the eventual winners are unlikely to change.
