Hawaii's emergency management agency says the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory is raising Kīlauea's Alert Level from Advisory to Watch and its Aviation Color Code from Yellow to Orange, as precursory lava activity stirs at the volcano's summit ahead of a forecasted 56th eruptive episode.
Lava Activity Began Monday Morning
According to a post from Hawaii EMA
, the low-level eruption of lava at Kīlauea's summit began at 11:43 a.m. on Monday, Nov. 2, and officials note that this kind of precursory activity can persist for hours to days before a full lava fountaining episode begins. The timing lines up with reporting from Maui Now, which described a large flow of lava emerging from the volcano's north vent around that same time Monday morning.
Per Maui Now, the precursory low-level activity preceding episode 56 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption can continue for an extended stretch before fountaining kicks off. The outlet also reports that, as with the rest of this eruption, flows have stayed confined to Halemaʻumaʻu crater and the southwest side of Kaluapele, Kīlauea's summit caldera.
Trail Closures Amid Rockfall Concerns
The National Park Service said Halemaʻumaʻu Trail and part of Byron Ledge Trail would temporarily close amid increased seismic activity and concerns about rockfalls, as reported by Fox News.
Forecasters Disagree on Exact Timing
Exactly when episode 56's lava fountaining will start remains a moving target, with different sources giving different windows. A USGS volcano notice dated Nov. 1 put the forecast window at Nov. 3–7, based on slow, steady inflation trends at the summit and an assumption that magma chamber inflation would continue following patterns seen before episode 54. A separate USGS notice from Oct. 31 instead gave a Nov. 3–10 window, while cautioning that, given the unusual buildup to episode 55, it remains uncertain whether summit deformation will continue following a pattern consistent enough to allow for precise forecasting.
Maui Now reported that the forecast was revised to begin anywhere between Monday afternoon and Nov. 7, moved up from an earlier Nov. 4–7 window. Fox Weather, meanwhile, reported that USGS shifted its outlook to Nov. 2–9, after originally predicting the episode would arrive between Nov. 1 and 7. The discrepancies underscore just how fluid these forecasts can be as scientists watch the summit's tilt and inflation data in near real time.
What Past Episodes Suggest
Most Kīlauea lava-fountaining episodes since Dec. 23, 2024, have lasted a day or less, according to Maui Now's reporting, offering some sense of what could follow once fountaining begins. The most recent episode, number 55, arrived on Oct. 17 after an unusually long two-month pause following episode 54 on Aug. 25, as Fox Weather reported. That episode lasted only a few hours, but lava fountained as high as 720 feet into the air from the north vent.
Hawaii EMA's social media post also carried a standard reminder that its accounts are not monitored around the clock, and that residents should call 9-1-1 for emergencies. The agency, based in Honolulu, posts under the handle @hawaii_ema. No evacuations, injuries, or property damage have been reported in connection with the current activity.
