A new survey of Michigan Jewish early voters found notably weaker support for Democratic U.S. Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed than for fellow Democrat Jocelyn Benson, the party's nominee for governor, with many respondents pointing to concerns about antisemitism and Israel as reasons they could not back him. The poll's own published figures put El-Sayed's support among Jewish early voters at 57 percent, compared with more than 78 percent for Benson.
The survey, conducted October 25-31 by Mercury Public Affairs on behalf of The Jewish Majority, sampled 482 Michigan residents who identified as Jewish and had already voted in the 2026 general election, according to the organization's polling page. The Jewish Majority describes itself as a Washington, D.C.-based, nonpartisan research and advocacy organization. The poll reported a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points for the full sample at a 95 percent confidence level, with greater uncertainty for subgroup estimates. Figures on the exact size of El-Sayed's and Benson's support varied slightly by outlet: The Forward reported El-Sayed at 60 percent and Benson at 79 percent based on the same survey, while The Jewish Majority's own page cited 57 percent and more than 78 percent, respectively.
A Gap Poll Organizers Say Signals Deeper Concerns
Jonathan Schulman, executive director of The Jewish Majority, said the findings reflect frustration that has built over the course of the campaign. Nearly every Jewish Democrat who declined to back El-Sayed, Schulman said, would have supported a different Democratic nominee instead. Among self-identified Jewish Democrats who did not vote for El-Sayed, 99 percent said they likely would have voted for a different Democratic nominee, including 88 percent who described themselves as very likely to do so, per the poll's own reporting.
According to the same survey, 92 percent of self-identified Democrats who did not support El-Sayed cited concerns about antisemitism and an equal share cited his positions on Israel. Another 87 percent pointed to his comments following the attack at Temple Israel, and 84 percent cited his treatment of Michigan's Jewish community, the polling page states. Schulman said rejected voters had serious concerns about whether their voices were being heard, adding that Jewish voters expect concerns about rising antisemitism, Israel and the treatment of their community to be taken seriously.
Where the Rogers Vote Came From
The survey also examined why some Jewish voters turned toward Republican nominee Mike Rogers. Among Jewish early voters who supported Rogers, 61 percent described their vote as mainly against El-Sayed, compared with just 17 percent who said it was primarily in support of Rogers himself, the poll found. Reported totals for Rogers' overall share of the Jewish early vote differed between outlets, with Jewish Insider putting it at 34 percent and the Forward reporting 36 percent.
The Jewish Majority's polling page noted that 75 percent of respondents identified as Democrats or Democratic-leaning independents, underscoring that the shift away from El-Sayed came largely from within the party rather than from Republican-leaning voters. As reported by WFMZ, El-Sayed ran as a progressive Democrat in a race widely viewed as one of the nation's most important Senate contests, with control of the chamber in the 120th Congress hanging in the balance.
Context From Past Surveys and a Tight Battleground
Jewish Insider's reporting noted that Michigan's Jewish community, which numbers 130,000, typically supports Democratic candidates with around 70 percent support, a baseline that frames how far El-Sayed's reported numbers fell short in this survey. A September 2024 survey from the Jewish Electorate Institute had found that 97 percent of Jewish Democrats said they would vote Democratic, and that more than a third of Jewish Democrats said the rise of anti-Israel candidates had made it harder for them personally to identify as Democrats.
The stakes in Michigan's Senate race are heightened by its history of razor-thin margins. The Jewish Telegraphic Agency reported that Michigan's 2024 Senate race was decided by fewer than 20,000 votes. The same report noted that more than 1,000 Michigan Jews had signed an open letter pledging to vote for El-Sayed, compared with 560 who pledged to vote for Rogers, illustrating that the community itself remained divided even as the poll pointed to broader erosion in his support.
Jewish Insider cautioned that El-Sayed's numbers with Jewish voters could decline further as more surveys of the Michigan Jewish electorate were completed, since early voters tend to lean more Democratic than those who cast ballots on Election Day. The survey's findings reflect early-voter sentiment gathered in late October, not a certified outcome of the general election.
