Jacob Naven held an 876-vote lead over incumbent Manteca Mayor Gary Singh as of Wednesday's 1:11 a.m. update, with Naven pulling in 8,560 votes to Singh's 7,684 — a 52.7 percent to 47.3 percent split. But the race is far from settled: San Joaquin County still has just over 90,000 ballots left to process, meaning the outcome could shift considerably before it's final.
The count so far reflects only part of the picture. As the Manteca Bulletin reported, the Tuesday-night and early-morning tallies typically include ballots cast in person on Election Day along with mail-in ballots that were received and verified before the final weekend of October. Election officials updated the count twice overnight, most recently at 1:11 a.m. Wednesday, folding in in-person votes from Election Day on top of the mail ballots processed by Oct. 31.
What's still outstanding is substantial. Of the roughly 90,000 ballots left to process countywide, 83,239 are vote-by-mail ballots received by Election Day, with an additional 3,656 provisional and conditional ballots, as well as nearly 2,000 damaged or further-review ballots, according to Stocktonia. That backlog is nearly 5,000 ballots higher than it was during the last general election two years ago, the outlet noted.
Why So Many Ballots Still Need Work
Not every uncounted ballot is simply waiting in line — some need to be fixed before they can be counted at all. Mail-in ballot signatures must be verified against the signatures registered voters have on file, unlike in-person ballots, which are checked at the polling place before a voter ever casts a vote. San Joaquin County has 3,070 ballots that still need curing, a category that includes envelopes with an unsigned signature line, ones with a signature that doesn't clearly match what's on file, and ballots from first-time federal voters who still need to provide identification.
The San Joaquin County Registrar of Voters said it planned to begin verifying and counting some of the unprocessed ballots, with an estimate of what's left expected by 5 p.m. Thursday. The office had scheduled its next update for 7 p.m. Friday, November 6, under a reporting schedule the San Joaquin County Registrar's office announced ahead of the election. After that, the Registrar said it would post updates every Monday, Wednesday and Friday by 7 p.m. until every ballot has been verified and counted.
Why the Remaining Votes Could Still Swing the Race
Mail-in ballots can trend differently from ballots cast in person, which is part of why a lead built on early returns isn't necessarily the final word. Political consultants have pointed to data showing that Republicans tend to vote in stronger numbers on Election Day than Democrats, a pattern that can shift margins as the remaining mail and provisional ballots get processed. Consultants have estimated that Manteca residents cast somewhere between 6,000 and 8,000 ballots that have yet to be counted.
Turnout estimates for the county as a whole have varied by source. Registrar of Voters Olivia Hale said she expected turnout of 46 percent to 60 percent of registered voters by the time all votes are counted, a process the registrar said could take weeks, per Stocktonia's reporting. A separate account from the Manteca Bulletin described a projected range of 40 percent to 60 percent of eligible voters, translating to 160,000 to 240,000 ballots overall — a different framing of the same uncertainty about how many votes are still to come.
Other Local Races Still in Flux
Manteca's mayoral contest isn't the only local race still moving. In Stockton City Council District 5, Desiree Lynch was leading Councilmember Brando Villapudua 53.6 percent to 46.4 percent in Stocktonia's reported count. Earlier returns had shown Michele Padilla ahead of Tamica Small 58.7 percent to 41.3 percent in District 1, while Michael Blower led Jessica Toccoli 59.5 percent to 40.5 percent in District 3.
The county has moved fast before. During the June 2026 primary, the Registrar reported the county was on pace for one of its fastest counts in its history, with about 2,700 ballots left to review six days after Election Day — after workers processed 28,471 additional ballots in a single update, according to The Record. Whether this fall's count moves at a similar pace remains to be seen, given the larger backlog this time around.
Certification Still Weeks Away
Even once the counting wraps up, the results reported in the coming days remain preliminary. As Yahoo News noted, these early figures are part of a semifinal official canvass that gets updated as counties continue counting ballots. The San Joaquin County Registrar of Voters has said it will certify the election results after 5 p.m. on Nov. 25, calling that the soonest date possible under current state legislation. A separate report stated that counties must certify election results by Dec. 3, though the evidence available does not explain how that statewide deadline relates to San Joaquin County's own announced Nov. 25 certification schedule.
For now, Manteca voters are left watching a race still very much in motion. With tens of thousands of ballots yet to be verified and counted, and categories of ballots still needing signature fixes or voter ID before they can be tallied, the gap between Naven and Singh could narrow, widen, or hold — and no one will know for certain until the counting is done.
