Democrat Don Leonard pulled off a stunning upset Tuesday night, defeating Republican U.S. Rep. Mike Carey in Ohio's 15th Congressional District, a seat Republicans had held since Carey won a 2021 special election. The Associated Press projected Leonard as the winner on Nov. 3, 2026, ending Carey's run in a district few expected to flip.
According to WOSU Public Media, the district has consistently elected Republicans over the last two decades, and the Cook Political Report had rated the race Lean Republican ahead of Election Day. Unofficial results posted by the Ohio Secretary of State showed Leonard leading Carey 52% to 45% as of 10:49 p.m. that night, with 85% of precincts reporting. A later count published by the Scioto Valley Guardian put the margin at 51.6% to 45.6%, or 151,420 votes to 133,878, with 1,151 of the district's 1,180 precincts tallied. Both figures remain unofficial pending certification.
A Decisive Call From Election Forecasters
Decision Desk HQ also projected Leonard as the winner, calling the race by nearly 8 percentage points with 91% of ballots cast at 10:37 p.m. EST, as reported by The Hill. Separately, Cleveland.com reported that with 97% of votes counted, Leonard held 52.2% to Carey's 45%, while Libertarian candidate Brennan Barrington took 2.8%.
Leonard is a first-time candidate and a former Ohio State University professor who lives in Columbus's Hilltop neighborhood, according to the same WOSU report. Cleveland.com, in reporting by Sabrina Eaton, identified him as a professor of city and regional planning at Ohio State. He made affordability and access to healthcare central themes of his campaign, per the outlet's report, and pledged not to take corporate money, according to Cleveland.com.
Carey's Tenure And The Money Behind The Race
Carey, a Columbus Republican and former executive at Murray Energy coal company, first won the seat in a 2021 special election after Steve Stivers left Congress to lead the Ohio Chamber of Commerce, WOSU reported. He went on to defeat his Democratic challenger by roughly 13 percentage points in 2024, according to The Hill, and as recently as June spoke at a House Ways and Means Committee hearing. Cleveland.com's reporting put Carey's re-election fundraising at $4.2 million as of Oct. 14, compared with $1.3 million raised by Leonard over the same period.
A broader financial picture from the Ohio Capital Journal showed a tighter gap in the campaign's final stretch: from July through the first half of October, Carey reported around $772,000 in contributions versus roughly $550,000 for Leonard, leaving Carey with a cash-on-hand edge of about $272,000 as of Oct. 14. The outlet also reported that Democrats outraised Republicans in five of Ohio's six competitive U.S. House races in that stretch, and that independent-expenditure groups poured a combined $5.4 million into ads in the 10th and 15th District races between Oct. 16 and Oct. 23 alone. Cook Political Report shifted its rating on the 15th District from Solid Republican to Lean Republican on Oct. 16, the Ohio Capital Journal noted.
Carey's Response And District Scope
Carey attributed his loss to the headwinds he faced, according to Cleveland.com's reporting. In a social media statement, he said he was proud of his work in Congress since 2021 and that the position is about serving the people of Ohio, adding that he would continue serving. He also said he wished Leonard well and would offer advice and consultation as Leonard took on the district's responsibilities.
Ohio's 15th Congressional District includes all or parts of Clark, Fayette, Franklin, Highland, Madison, Miami and Pickaway counties, per Cleveland.com's report. With final certification still pending, the upset marks one of the more striking swings of the 2026 midterm cycle in a seat Republicans had held since Stivers's departure for the Ohio Chamber of Commerce.
