Ken Paxton's campaign appeared to quietly drop plans to close out its “Come and Take It” bus tour with a finale at the Alamo, instead holding a 6 p.m. rally Sunday at The Angry Elephant in San Antonio. The shift came just two days before Paxton had planned to wrap up his U.S. Senate campaign at the historic San Antonio landmark, with Monday events now set for Conroe at 11 a.m. and Allen at 5:30 p.m.
According to the Texas Tribune, “Paxton appeared to scrap those plans” for the Alamo event, and the Alamo Trust told the outlet it was unaware of any plans for Paxton to host an event on the grounds. The Tribune also reported that Paxton's campaign had seen cancellations or rescheduled events in El Paso, Tyler, Texarkana and Mission in the campaign's final stretch. As reported by KSAT, the Conroe and Allen stops were added to fill out Monday's schedule after the Alamo plan fell through.
The San Antonio venue is familiar ground for Paxton's campaign. Back on Aug. 8, roughly 200 Republicans attended a rally he held at the same Angry Elephant location, according to the San Antonio Report. Paxton, the Republican U.S. Senate nominee, is locked in an unusually tight race against 37-year-old Austin Democrat James Talarico, who according to the seed reporting from WOAI has led Paxton in Texas Senate polling by a narrow margin.
Polls Diverge as Election Nears
Just how narrow that margin is depends on which poll you believe. A Fox News survey released in mid-October found Talarico and Paxton tied at 49% each among Texas likely voters, per Fox News. Days later, a CNN/SSRS poll showed Talarico up by 6 percentage points, while a Quantus Insights poll released around the same time had Paxton edging ahead, 48.7% to 47.6%, according to the Daily Beast and FOX 7 Austin respectively. Click2Houston reported that Talarico has maintained a slim polling lead overall late in the campaign.
The uncertainty extends to voter turnout figures. The Texas Tribune reported that more than 7.7 million Texans voted early in the 2026 election, surpassing the 2018 record, while the Daily Beast put the figure at 7.6 million ballots, representing the largest early-voting share of any state at 40%. Click2Houston separately reported that early voting participation through the first 11 days exceeded the comparable 2022 midterm total by more than 40%. WOAI's reporting, drawn from the Texas Tribune, noted that Texans cast more than 7.4 million early ballots over the 12-day early voting period that ended the Friday before publication, exceeding 2022 early voting by 36% according to Texas Secretary of State totals.
A Record-Setting Price Tag
Money has defined this race as much as any single debate or rally — and there have been no debates at all. Candidates and outside groups have spent a combined $408 million on advertising since the primaries, according to Click2Houston, which also reported that national Republican groups alone have poured more than $272 million into the race, making it the most expensive U.S. Senate race in the country.
That spending disparity has been stark. From the start of 2025 through Oct. 14, Talarico's campaign raised a cumulative $155 million compared with $40.6 million for Paxton's, the Texas Tribune reported. Yet Talarico has also absorbed more than $208 million in opposition spending, compared with roughly $23 million spent supporting his candidacy, per the same Tribune accounting. A newly formed Texas PAC spent more than $131 million supporting Paxton in just 17 days, according to Axios, which also reported that Talarico's campaign had booked about $35 million in advertising for the final two months and was projected to be outspent nearly five to one by pro-Paxton groups.
Talarico's campaign has countered with targeted spending of its own, announcing a $25 million investment in Black voter outreach, the Tribune reported. On the trail, Talarico has sharpened his contrast with Paxton directly, telling supporters that Paxton had a criminal record while he had a legislative record, according to WOAI's reporting.
How This Race Fits the Pattern
Texas Democrats have chased a statewide upset before without success. The Texas Tribune noted that Colin Allred raised nearly $21 million more than Ted Cruz in 2024 but still lost by 8.5 percentage points, and that Beto O'Rourke raised nearly $45 million more than Cruz in 2018 yet lost by 2.6 points. Whether Talarico's fundraising advantage — which WOAI's reporting described as more than any Senate candidate in the country — translates into a different outcome remains to be seen.
The scrapped Alamo plans cap a chaotic homestretch for a race that both parties agree could determine control of the U.S. Senate. The reasons behind the change to Paxton's schedule have not been confirmed, and his campaign's intentions around the Alamo event remain unclear based on available reporting.
