For Albany, the key question is whether a disturbance high above the Arctic will eventually affect local temperatures or snow. A sudden stratospheric warming is underway, and forecasts suggest it could be the earliest major event of its kind on record by as much as two weeks. Its timing, however, does not determine what winter will bring to the Capital Region.
Meteorologist and freelance writer David Zywiczynski, who grew up in Buffalo and studied as an undergraduate at the University at Albany before earning a master's degree in applied meteorology from Plymouth State University, explained the atmospheric setup in a piece for the Times Union published Thursday. Large waves moving from the lower atmosphere into the stratosphere can disrupt the polar vortex and may reverse its winds. During such an event, stratospheric temperatures can rise 50 to 90 degrees in a few days.
According to NOAA meteorologist Laura Ciasto, the polar stratospheric winds could reverse from westerly to easterly sometime between November 6 and 10, as reported by USA Today. A November 4 update from severe-weather.eu went further, noting that forecasts showed stratospheric winds collapsing toward a full reversal in early November, with the vortex splitting into two separate cores. That outlet also reported ensemble-model confidence in a reversal at 96% for the ECM-ENS model, 71% for the GEFS, and 37% for the AIFS.
Why a Weaker Vortex Does Not Guarantee a Cold Snap
A weakened polar vortex can allow arctic air to spill south into the mid-latitudes within a few weeks, and the current disruption raises the possibility of arctic air moving into the mid-latitudes later in November, according to the Times Union. But Ciasto was blunt about the uncertainty tied to that scenario, telling USA Today that whether the disruption translates into significant cold or snow in the United States later in November or December is much less certain.
Other forecasters echo that caution. Judah Cohen said the most certain impact is a period of milder weather to eastern North America, probably for much of November, per USA Today. Cohen also said SSW-driven weather effects usually take around two weeks to emerge, putting any impact as early as late November but more likely in December, and possibly delayed until January. He added, in comments reported by the Capital Weather Gang, that he has greater confidence the disruption will affect weather in Eurasia than in the eastern United States. A Brightband AI model ensemble cited by USA Today indicated the event could be weak and short-lived, with little impact on the United States.
Atmospheric modeling currently supports the highest chance of arctic air moving into Europe and Asia rather than the Northeast, the Times Union reported. The severe-weather.eu update similarly pointed to cooler trends developing over parts of Europe and the eastern United States in the coming weeks, while cautioning that the disruption's early-season timing makes its impact less predictable and possibly less impactful than a midwinter event would be.
A Record-Warm El Niño Complicates the Picture
Complicating any simple cold-air forecast is the fact that the current disruption is developing alongside a record-warm El Niño, per the Times Union. Tropical Pacific surface waters have been running far warmer than normal: temperatures averaged about 2.5 degrees above normal from June through August 2026, then reached about 5.1 degrees above normal in September. NOAA models now forecast average tropical Pacific water temperatures roughly 4.9 degrees above normal from December 2026 through February 2027 — a departure that would make it the warmest El Niño since records began in 1950.
Wintertime El Niño events typically produce a strong jet stream across the United States that pumps mild Pacific air into the country, according to the Times Union's reporting. That exceptionally warm Pacific could overwhelm some effects of a weakened polar vortex and act as a buffer against arctic outbreaks. Meteorologist Matt Rogers made a similar point to Capital Weather Gang, saying a strong Pacific subtropical jet tied to El Niño could act as a firewall, blocking intrusions of cold air from the north. El Niño also tends to drive moisture toward the southern United States and East Coast, and the Climate Prediction Center is forecasting above-normal temperatures for the Northeast through November, the Times Union noted.
What History Does — and Doesn't — Tell Us
Reliable records dating to 1958 include only two other sudden stratospheric warming events in November, according to USA Today — one in 1958 and one in 2000, per the Times Union's accounting. A late-November 2025 SSW event, which occurred on November 28 and tied 1968 for the earliest recorded SSW on record at the time, caused temperature departures of 3 to 5 degrees below normal and preceded several big storms in December 2025, the Times Union reported.
But past events have also produced very different outcomes. Judah Cohen cited a November 2009 vortex disruption during an El Niño winter as a precedent before the historically snowy winter of 2009-2010 in the Mid-Atlantic, per Capital Weather Gang. Yet after an early disruption in winter 2019-2020, the vortex recovered, and January and February ended up abnormally mild across much of the United States, the outlet also reported. Judah Cohen separately noted that the last El Niño winter, in 2023-24, featured two SSWs and was still very mild in the eastern U.S. — possibly record mild, per USA Today.
Philadelphia's recent history underscores just how unpredictable the outcomes can be. After the 2020-21 winter began uneventfully, Philadelphia ended up with one of its snowier Februaries, with some places outside the city receiving up to 50 inches of snow that winter, according to the Philadelphia Inquirer. Two Februaries later, after another warming event, the city's seasonal snow total was just 0.3 inches. The historical record, the Times Union notes, provides no true comparison for this year's event.
Timing also matters because of how early in the season this is unfolding. Because winter is still young, there is less frigid arctic air available to be drawn into North America compared with later in the season, according to the Times Union. Even so, a polar-vortex disruption's influence may take a couple of weeks, or longer, to work its way down through the atmosphere, per the Boston Globe. That delay means any effects from this week's reversal likely wouldn't be felt at the surface until later in the month at the earliest, and the Times Union reports that SSW effects could become more apparent toward the end of November.
Albany’s Near-Term Outlook
The available local historical benchmark is annual rather than November-specific: the National Weather Service Albany’s 2025 climate summary lists 54.4 inches of snowfall, 4.8 inches below the 59.2-inch normal. In its Nov. 5 forecast discussion, the office expected temperatures to return closer to normal Sunday into the first half of the following week, with 40s in higher terrain and 50s in valleys—an immediate outlook distinct from any delayed stratospheric influence.
No Coastal Storm on the Immediate Horizon
Some social media predictions have gotten ahead of the science, expecting an arctic blast and heavy snow within two to three weeks, according to the Times Union. The outlet stresses that moisture and arctic air could eventually provide the ingredients for a potent coastal storm or nor'easter if conditions align, but the Northeast currently has no immediate threat of such a storm. For now, the sudden stratospheric warming event remains in its early phases, with the current SSW event expected to reach full wind reversal in early to mid-November, leaving the question of a cold, snowy finish to the month — and whether upstate New York will feel it — unresolved.
