A U.S. House race that was supposed to be a routine Republican hold turned into a nail-biter this week, with Spokane Democrat Carmela Conroy trailing incumbent Michael Baumgartner by fewer than 2,000 votes as ballots kept rolling in across Eastern Washington's 5th Congressional District.
Election-night tallies varied slightly depending on the source. According to The Spokesman-Review, Baumgartner held 50.3% of the vote to Conroy's 49.3%. The Tri-City Herald reported a slightly different snapshot, with Baumgartner at 50% and 96,663 ballots counted to Conroy's 49% and 94,806 ballots — a gap of fewer than 2,000 votes. As of 8:40 p.m. on Election Day, Baumgartner's lead stood at 1,857 votes, according to the Washington State Standard.
Whatever the exact margin, the numbers represent a political earthquake for a seat Republicans have controlled since 1995, when George Nethercutt unseated incumbent Democrat Tom Foley, per KXLY 920 News Now. Baumgartner cruised to reelection in 2024 with more than 60% of the vote, a margin that KXLY 920 News Now notes exceeded 84,000 votes — a lead that evaporated almost entirely in the span of two years, according to the Spokesman-Review.
A Closer Fight Than Anyone Expected
Tens of thousands of votes still remain to be counted before the race is certified, per the same Spokesman-Review report. Baumgartner, speaking Tuesday night, projected confidence that the trend would hold in his favor. “We're very confident that as additional ballots come in, that they will continue to trend Republican,” he told the Washington State Standard.
Geography told much of the story on election night. The Spokesman-Review's count showed Conroy leading in Spokane, Walla Walla and Whitman counties — the district's most Democratic pockets — while Baumgartner built large leads across the remaining rural counties. Election officials still plan to tally additional ballots in Benton, Franklin, Yakima, Klickitat, Adams, Grant, Douglas and Okanogan counties, with updated results expected Wednesday afternoon, the Tri-City Herald reported.
From Blowout to Nail-Biter
The tightness of the race stands out against Baumgartner's recent history. He earned just 47% in this summer's primary, which the Spokesman-Review's report called the worst primary showing for a Republican in the district since 1992. Coverage of Tuesday's results described Conroy's performance as the best result for a Democrat in the district in decades, per the same outlet.
Under Washington law, the clock on finalizing the outcome is already running. According to RCW 29A.60.190, county canvassing boards must complete the canvass and certify results 21 days after a general election, meaning the full picture in the 5th District won't come into focus for weeks.
Another Close Race Up North
Eastern Washington's other open congressional contest was less dramatic but still notable. In the race to succeed retiring Rep. Dan Newhouse in the 4th Congressional District, Yakima County Commissioner Amanda McKinney led John Duresky 54% to 46%, according to the Tri-City Herald, a margin of roughly 74,133 ballots to 62,569. That district, which covers all of Grant, Douglas, Benton, Okanogan, Klickitat and Yakima counties along with parts of Adams and Franklin counties, has long been considered the state's most conservative.
Both Eastern Washington races will keep election watchers on edge in the coming days as more ballots are processed and officials move toward certifying the final results.
