An evaluation of New York City police vehicle pursuits from 2022 through 2025 found that pursuit-related collisions rose as chases increased and declined after the NYPD restricted them. The researchers found no persuasive evidence that the expansion reduced robberies or gun violence. The paper was published in the Journal of Quantitative Criminology.
What the study could—and could not—show
The researchers compared New York City crime statistics with national trends, examining collisions, robberies and gun violence. They report no noticeable change in robberies or gun violence tied to the pursuit increase. The city’s post-2022 shooting trend was statistically indistinguishable from the national comparison, while robbery rose relative to comparable cities. They also found no increase in crime after pursuits declined in February 2025. The paper treats the collision results as a causal finding; its crime analysis, by contrast, finds no persuasive evidence of deterrence.
The paper also compares pursuit-related costs with potential benefits using a value-of-life analysis. The researchers concluded that the number of shootings that would need to be prevented to offset the harms was not reached. They recommend that police departments require affirmative evidence of crime-prevention benefits before expanding pursuit authority.
Policy changes and pursuit levels
The study traces monthly pursuits from an average of about eight before the increase to a peak above 200, and identifies an operational shift in late 2022. Streetsblog New York City reports that then-Chief of Patrol Jeffrey Maddrey formalized the looser approach in an August 2023 memo, allowing pursuits for non-violent crimes subject to a safety-based termination standard.
Commissioner Jessica Tisch changed the policy in 2025. The NYPD announcement says the revised rules limited pursuits to felonies and violent misdemeanors. The policy also discouraged pursuits near schools and playgrounds and protected officers from criticism or discipline when they ended a chase over safety concerns. The study reports that pursuit numbers dropped after the February 2025 restriction, without a subsequent rise in crime.
Reported harms and a fatal pursuit
Streetsblog, reporting the researchers’ estimates, puts the increase associated with the expanded policy at about 675 collisions, 355 injuries and seven additional deaths. The outlet also reported roughly a dozen pursuit-related fatalities during the period studied. In 2024, the NYPD recorded 2,278 chases; about two-thirds began as traffic-offense car stops, and roughly one-quarter resulted in a collision, property damage or physical harm, according to Streetsblog New York City.
Amanda Servedio, a 37-year-old cyclist, was killed in Astoria on October 22, 2024, after a Dodge Ram fleeing police struck her following a pursuit of about a mile. The driver had fled officers responding to a reported burglary and struck two NYPD vehicles; two officers were treated at Elmhurst Hospital for minor injuries. The New York Daily News reported those details.
Citywide traffic deaths in context
For broader context, NYC DOT reported 205 citywide traffic deaths in 2025, down 19 percent from 253 in 2024. That citywide figure does not measure pursuit-related deaths, and it does not establish a full 2022–25 trend in traffic deaths or serious injuries.
Streetsblog reported that the NYPD did not respond to its requests for comment on the study. The paper’s findings concern measured effects of the policy changes; the additional estimates and some policy details above are based on Streetsblog’s reporting.
