President Donald Trump's approval rating stood at 38% in early exit polling from Tuesday's midterm elections, a figure that would mark the lowest for any president heading into a midterm in recent memory. Roughly six in 10 voters said Trump factored into how they voted for the House of Representatives, and the economy and cost of living dominated voters' concerns nationwide, according to early results.
Exit Poll Tracks Nationwide Mood, Not Individual Races
The 38% approval figure is lower than Trump recorded during his first term. George W. Bush's approval reached 38% by December 2006, after the November midterm election, The Hill reported.
That 2006 comparison carries some historical weight. Bush's approval had sunk to 38% by December of that year, according to Gallup figures cited by The Hill, and Republicans went on to lose control of both the House and Senate, with Democrats picking up a net 31 House seats. Whether 2026 produces a similar shift remains to be seen, but the early approval numbers are drawing comparisons.
Trump Looms Large Over the House Vote
Roughly six in 10 voters said Trump was a factor in their House vote, per the CBS exit poll, though the reasoning split sharply along party lines. Voters backing Democrats were overwhelmingly motivated by opposition to Trump, the network reported, while most MAGA Republicans said their vote was meant to support him. Most non-MAGA Republicans, by contrast, said Trump wasn't a factor in their decision at all.
Roughly three-quarters of voters told CBS they were at least dissatisfied with the direction of the country. Voters were also more than twice as likely to say their personal finances had gotten worse rather than better, a pattern that showed up across other recent surveys too. The Marist Poll, conducted October 19-20, found the share of registered voters saying their finances had deteriorated climbed to 40%, up from 34% in September.
Cost of Living Dominates, But Issues Split by Party
Voters across party lines expressed concern about affording gas, groceries and utilities, the CBS exit poll found. The economy ranked as the single most important issue among voters, followed by the state of democracy. Cost of living emerged as a major factor across the board, though CBS said it carried more weight for voters backing Democrats, while immigration enforcement mattered more to those backing Republicans.
Other pre-election surveys echoed that economic anxiety, even though they reflect different sample dates and methodologies. An AP-NORC poll conducted October 8-12 among 1,119 adults found 85% of voters called the economy one of the most important issues shaping their vote, with 84% saying the same about cost of living. That same survey put Trump's approval at 36%, with 64% disapproving.
Pew Research Center found 84% of registered voters called the economy very important to their midterm vote, including 88% of those backing Democrats and 82% of those backing Republicans. That marks a shift from 2022, when the economy's importance to Republican voters was higher, at 92%, while it mattered far less to Democratic voters, at 65%, per Pew.
Government Corruption Rivals Cost of Living as a Voting Factor
Nearly as many voters nationally, about nine in 10, said government corruption was a major factor in their vote, a share CBS described as roughly on par with cost of living. More voters reported negative views of the economy than they did two years earlier, with sentiment described as more in line with the 2022 midterms than with recent elections.
The CBS News/YouGov survey, conducted October 21-23 with a nationally representative sample of 2,355 U.S. adults, reported a margin of error of 2.6 points for the total sample and 3.0 points among likely voters. That poll similarly found the economy and inflation remained top concerns, with more than seven in 10 voters backing Democrats saying their congressional vote was meant to oppose Trump.
Separate from the exit poll, CNN's preliminary national Voter Poll found 71% of voters said Congress was not doing enough to check Trump. More than four in 10 voters told CNN their family situation was worse than it had been two years earlier, while only about two in 10 said it was better, and roughly nine in 10 said they were very or somewhat concerned about the cost of gas and diesel.
Democracy and Partisan Divides Shape the Electorate
The NPR/PBS News/Marist Poll from October 19-20 found cost of living was the top issue for 34% of likely voters, with preserving democracy close behind at 33%. That same survey put Trump's approval among likely voters at 40%, with 59% disapproving, and found 44% said their congressional vote was mainly against Trump compared with 21% who said it was mainly in his favor.
Pew's polling also found a partisan gap on democracy as an issue: 85% of Democratic voters called the future of democracy very important to their midterm vote, compared with 69% of Republican voters. CBS reported a similar dynamic in its exit poll, with Democratic voters prioritizing the state of democracy and voters focused on that issue particularly likely to also cite government corruption as crucial to their vote.
