Flooding could cause nearly $2.3 billion in damage across western North Texas over the next 50 years, according to preliminary findings from a regional planning study covering parts of Parker, Tarrant, Hood and Johnson counties. The estimate accounts for existing and future buildings, the belongings inside them, vehicles and the cost of displacing residents, such as temporary housing. Researchers behind the study say the risk is tied directly to how fast the region is paving over open land.
The figures come from the Upper Trinity River Transportation and Stormwater Infrastructure study, a project launched in 2023 by the North Central Texas Council of Governments, as reported by the Fort Worth Report. The effort aims to identify ways to design growth across transportation, drainage and development sectors that reduce flood damage and improve safety, according to NCTCOG. The agency says the study is also meant to generate maps and models of future flood risk along with policy recommendations on development and floodplain management.
Susan Alvarez, NCTCOG's director of environment and development, said coordinated development planning could prevent greater future costs to communities, per the Fort Worth Report's account. She said the study considers integrating drainage and transportation planning from the outset, allowing upstream areas to grow without harming downstream neighbors. Alvarez added that the downstream watershed would not have the capacity to absorb development built at the same density as cities closer to Dallas.
Pavement Is Projected to Nearly Sextuple by 2070
The study estimates developed surfaces, roads, parking lots, rooftops and other paved ground, will grow from 6.4% of the land in 2020 to 35.2% by 2070, the station's report notes. More pavement means more runoff and less natural ground available to absorb heavy rain, a dynamic study researchers say is central to the rising damage projections. That growth is expected to track a surging population: the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex was estimated at about 8.4 million people in 2025 and could top 12 million by 2050, per the same account.
Layered onto that growth is a shifting climate picture. The article notes that extreme precipitation is expected to increase as more heat becomes trapped in the atmosphere due to man-made climate change. That tracks with findings from NOAA's state climate summary for Texas, which reports that while statewide annual precipitation shows no long-term trend, the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events are projected to increase. The same summary notes that Texas annual average temperatures have already climbed more than 1.5 degrees Fahrenheit since the start of the 20th century, and it points to May 2015 as an example of the state's flood risk, when above-normal rainfall dumped up to 20 inches of rain on some North Texas locations.
More Than 200 Fixes Identified, Nine Moving Toward Funding
The study identified more than 200 potential projects to reduce flooding and strengthen infrastructure, according to the Fort Worth Report. Recommendations include larger culverts and bridges, drainage systems built into roadway projects, rain gardens, keeping new buildings back from floodplains and flood warning systems, a list that closely matches details reported by Strategic Partnerships, Inc., which covers the study's funding push. Planners are also weighing broader measures such as reducing paved surfaces and requiring developers to study how their projects affect downstream neighbors.
Nine of those projects, representing roughly $160.2 million in proposed investments, are being submitted for state funding consideration and are ready for immediate design and construction, according to Strategic Partnerships. The outlet reports the nine projects are projected to prevent about $227.8 million in flood damage, translating to an estimated $1.42 in avoided losses for every dollar invested. The remaining projects identified in the study still need further analysis before they could move forward.
Full Findings, Covering More Counties, Due by Year's End
NCTCOG's study evaluates how development, transportation infrastructure and drainage systems interact across a wider footprint than the preliminary findings cover, including Dallas, Denton, Ellis, Hood, Johnson, Parker, Tarrant and Wise counties, Strategic Partnerships reports. Final study findings are expected by the end of 2026 and will include analysis of areas such as Denton and Wise counties that weren't part of the preliminary damage estimate. The study has drawn funding and oversight from the Texas General Land Office, along with support from the Texas Water Development Board, the Texas Department of Transportation and the Federal Emergency Management Agency, per NCTCOG.
The stakes echo a much older warning. A 1990 Upper Trinity River study, cited in an NCTCOG presentation from earlier this year, estimated that a Standard Project Flood could cause $11.1 billion in damages under National Flood Insurance Program criteria, or $4.25 billion under CDC criteria. That same presentation detailed a pilot analysis of the Town Creek watershed showing modeled 100-year peak discharge increases of 9% to 20%, alongside water-surface elevation increases of roughly 1 to 2 feet, a localized preview of the kind of risk now being mapped across the wider region.
