Pittsburgh residents might want to hold onto their hats as the National Weather Service in Pittsburgh forecasted potential severe thunderstorms to hit the area this afternoon and evening, particularly over northwest Pennsylvania and adjacent eastern Ohio. According to the National Weather Service discussion, humid conditions today are expected to give rise to thunderstorms, with chances by this afternoon of strong to severe storms primarily north of Pittsburgh. The storms, brought on by a frontal boundary sagging south and stalling near the Mason-Dixon Line, could feature damaging winds and hail.
This morning's patchy river valley fog is anticipated to clear as the day progresses, making way for increasing moisture and high temperatures hovering near the 90-degree mark. In conjunction with high dewpoints in the upper 60s, these conditions create a conducive environment for thunderstorm formation. Weather models have displayed some inconsistency concerning thunderstorm placement, and coverage, though activity is mainly forecasted north of Pittsburgh along the aforementioned frontal boundary.
The Storm Prediction Center has maintained the previous slight risk for organized multi-cell deep convection in the region, reflecting the 0-6km shear gradient. This shear's a sharp difference, ranging from about 20 knots along the southern Pennsylvania border to perhaps 45 knots north of I-80. This prediction follows machine learning outputs which, after originally downplaying the event's severity, have since revised forecasts to align with the potential for significant thunderstorm activity.
Looking ahead, Tuesday could bring a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms along with a slight dip in temperature. This shift is precipitated by a front that will stall across the area, complemented by a weak shortwave trough's southeast trajectory over the Great Lakes. The interplay of these systems may produce a focusing mechanism for additional scattered thunderstorms come Tuesday afternoon and evening. On the aviation front, general VFR conditions are expected through most of today, but the approach and passage of a shortwave trough and weak surface cold front later this afternoon into the evening could disrupt this outlook, with possible restrictions and shower, thunderstorm activity predicted into Wednesday.
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