According to an early morning forecast discussion, the National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC area is bracing for a few days of unpredictable weather. The report, released at 3:52 AM EDT today, anticipates occasional showers and potential thunderstorms as an upper-level low moves eastward. A midweek cold front is expected to bring high pressure and clearer skies afterward.
Throughout today and Tuesday night, showers are expected to slowly move through the region, potentially generating heavy rainfall, especially in areas of terrain and along already swollen creeks and rivers, with the Shenandoah River cited in the report. Given swollen small creeks and rivers in some areas west of the Blue Ridge, particularly the Shenandoah River, some flooding is possible. Temperatures are set to remain moderately cozy with highs in the 70s today, dipping into the 60s or near 70 degrees Monday and cooling further on Tuesday. Fog is also possible nightly in areas that receive rain due to the low temperature/dew point depressions.
In aviation news, IFR conditions have overtaken the airfields due to moist northeast winds, and we anticipate improvement to MVFR this afternoon. However, IFR to low-end MVFR conditions will linger through Tuesday night. Pilots can expect VFR conditions to return Wednesday and Thursday following the cold front's passage earlier in the week. "Winds generally east through Tuesday at 5-10 kts before turning northeasterly Tuesday night ahead of the front," states the NWS report.
For mariners, several periods of Small Craft Advisory-level winds are expected over the short term. If confidence increases, the National Weather Service suggests issuing a Marine Weather Statement or a Small Craft Advisory. After the Wednesday cold front, northwesterly winds might create channeling effects, hinting at conditions nearing Small Craft Advisory levels.
