The National Weather Service in Cleveland has issued a forecast for the area through the weekend, highlighting a transient weather pattern with multiple systems expected to affect the region. A cold front moving eastward is set to exit by this evening, giving way to high pressure that will briefly make a return tonight into Sunday morning. However, the respite will be short-lived as another series of systems will move through from Sunday night onward, bringing chances of rainfall.
A recent update from the NWS mentions an increase in the probability of precipitation (PoPs) in Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania, rising to a 30 percent chance for light showers early today. Forecasters note that showers and isolated thunderstorms could precede the cold front, particularly on the eastern fringe of the CWA (County Warning Area) late this morning before moving out in the afternoon. In a statement obtained by NWS Cleveland, "If thunderstorms do develop farther west than anticipated, there may be a very low-end chance of hail and gusty winds, but conditions will be more favorable to the east of the CWA."
The forecast calls for dry weather following the passage of the front, which should continue through tonight and the first half of Sunday. Some patchy fog could develop overnight, mostly in areas that receive rainfall. Meanwhile, temperatures today are expected to reach the mid to upper 80s west of I-71, with slightly cooler temperatures to the east.
Looking into the early part of the week, NWS Cleveland anticipates the best chances for widespread rainfall in quite some time, although it won't be a "drought buster." A cold front coinciding with an upper-level shortwave will likely bring categorical PoPs from Sunday night into Monday. "Overall, looking at an average of 1 to 1.5 inches of total rainfall by Tuesday night, which will help some of the rain deficits of the region and curb the drought from worsening," noted the NWS discussion. Temperatures during this period should trend toward normal.
The long-term forecast remains uncertain due to diverging model solutions regarding the trough trajectory, which will influence the weather starting Wednesday. Depending on its path, conditions could range from continuous rain chances to a more settled blocking pattern with drier weather. Marine conditions on Lake Erie are projected to be manageable, with only modest wind changes and wave heights anticipated as various fronts pass through the lake.
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