Honolulu is preparing for changing weather as trade winds are expected to ease. Rain chances will increase in windward and mauka areas, with heavy showers possibly reaching leeward spots. The National Weather Service forecasts a weakening ridge to the north, leading to slightly wetter conditions on Sunday and Monday.
Travelers and locals in Hawaii can expect a break from breezy conditions by Tuesday, as more stable weather returns. This change is due to a surface ridge north of the islands that has been causing strong trade winds. The forecast indicates that an upper disturbance passing by will mix the atmospheric layers, weakening the inversion that keeps rain at bay, potentially leading to heavier showers, especially in windward areas.
Despite the temporary shift, trade winds will strengthen again by midweek, bringing breezy conditions back to Hawaii. A solidifying ridge to the north and two tropical disturbances to the south will tighten the pressure gradient, boosting the winds. At the same time, an upper low will move west, while a ridge from the east will restore stability to the skies.
Aviators should pay close attention to the forecast, as moderate trade winds will weaken slightly into Sunday. Scattered showers are expected, especially in windward and mountain areas. The National Weather Service warns of a higher temperature inversion that could lead to brief moderate to heavy downpours, possibly affecting leeward areas as well. There’s also a chance of MVFR conditions during heavier showers, so pilots should be alert for potential AIRMET Sierra due to mountain obscuration at night, along with AIRMET Tango for turbulence between FL200 and FL400.
Marine conditions are set to change as trade winds will weaken slightly due to a cold front in the northern Central Pacific, keeping winds below Small Craft Advisory levels through Monday. However, by Tuesday, a moderate northwest swell is expected to increase surf along northern and western beaches. Meanwhile, surf on south-facing shores is anticipated to remain slightly below seasonal averages, affected by an inconsistent southwest swell, which is expected to pick up between late Monday and Wednesday.
