Get ready for a shift in the weather, Sacramento. After a cooler stint, we're heading for warmer days, but not without a hint of Sierra thunderstorms first. According to the National Weather Service Sacramento CA, today will see a brewing of scattered showers and possible thunderstorms south of I-80. The high elevation neighborhoods may also experience a bit of this rambunctious weather, before conditions mellow out, and we cruise into a far toastier weekend.
The low-pressure system making its move across Southern California is pushing moisture over the mountains, crafting a canvas ripe for thunderstorm initiation along the foothills later today. The "NBM probabilities show a 30-40% chance of development" in these regions, as per the NWS. While these storms are expected to lose their muster as they glide downslope, the stronger of the pack could bring thunderstorms impacts a bit more westward into the Sierra foothills. With a only 20-25% chance of thunderstorms predicted there, some light showers might knock at the doorstep of the Valley, especially its eastern arms.
For folks eagerly waiting for the sun to reclaim its throne, relief comes promptly as high pressure starts its ascent Friday with a robust ridge from the eastern Pacific heralding warmer climes. This trend toward balminess and aridity is anticipated to deepen into next week. "Dry conditions are expected everywhere else," forecasts the National Weather Service, and the Park Fire burn scar should hold steady with no debris flow impacts anticipated.
Rolling into the extended outlook from Monday through Thursday, a Moderate HeatRisk rears its head across the Valley and foothills with "the NBM is also showing a 20-50% of high temperatures greater than 100 degrees around the Greater Sacramento Metro Area," as NWS mentioned. Prepare to embrace—or escape—the heatwave, and remember to hydrate. Along with climbing mercury, we'll see gusts that could awaken windswept hearts in the more susceptible areas of the Sacramento Valley. Fire weather conditions also loom, so a heads up to all to exercise caution and common sense.
The aviation scene also reflects the weather's whims with the possibility of MVFR/IFR conditions in the wake of these tumultuous skies near the Sierra/Nevada Mountains. "Gusty and erratic winds near storms should be expected," NWS advises, so if you're heading out or flying in, keep an eye on the sky and an ear to the ground for updates. VFR conditions will prevail elsewhere with typical variable winds of 12kts or less. As the saying goes, if you don't like the weather, just wait five minutes — or in our case, maybe a day or two.
