The National Weather Service in Cleveland has issued a forecast that promises a continuation of the pleasant fall weather over the weekend, with high pressure remaining firmly in control. According to their Area Forecast Discussion, clear skies will allow daytime highs to reach into the mid to upper 60s today, and temperatures could rise close to 70 degrees in many areas on Saturday. Despite the warm days, nighttime will bring chilly lows, dropping into the low to mid-30s and creating potential frost and freeze conditions tonight.
As we progress into early next week, dry conditions persist further, courtesy of the low RH atmosphere and the sustained grip of surface high pressure. "With 850mb temperatures into the low/mid-teens, enough insolation and primarily southwesterly surface flow allows for upper 60s to 70s across the CWA, with Monday slightly warmer than Sunday," the National Weather Service discussion explains. This unseasonably quiet weather pattern seems to be somewhat of a gift for mid-October dwellers of the area.
The forecast extends to note a change in pattern starting Tuesday. An upper-level low is to move out of the Four Corners region and track eastward towards the southern Great Lakes, though its impact seems to be minimal beyond a slight increase in cloud cover at this time. That will then be followed quickly by a cold front associated with a higher amplitude trough aloft in the northern stream, bringing in the possibility of precipitation and a cooler airmass by mid-week.
Aviation reports from the NWS also spell out clear skies for the region, guaranteeing widespread VFR (Visual Flight Rules) conditions and generally light and variable winds through Tuesday. Likewise, marine conditions on Lake Erie are predicted to be calm, with southwest winds and nearshore wave heights of around a foot or less. However, looking ahead to Wednesday, there is an expectation for southwest winds to somewhat increase "to 10-15kts ahead of a cold front," according to the National Weather Service, which could lead to slight elevations in nearshore wave heights from Cleveland eastward through Dunkirk.
Morning advisories were in effect for some regions, with a Frost Advisory in place until 9 AM EDT this morning for parts of Ohio, a Freeze Warning until the same time for other areas, and a Frost Advisory for parts of Pennsylvania. No marine advisories were issued, indicating smooth sailing for Lake Erie's waters. As the golden hues of autumn leaves find themselves basking in the benevolence of an abiding sun, residents have a few more days to relish the serenity before the inevitable shift in weather reminds them of the season’s impermanence.
.jpg){kind=link}