As the trade winds continue to blow, a familiar pattern emerges for residents across the Hawaiian islands. Weather forecasters at the National Weather Service in Honolulu are predicting light trade winds for the coming days, with showers being a night-time occurrence primarily on the windward side. These winds are expected to strengthen, however, bringing showery conditions over the weekend that will persist into next week.
Trades are currently light to moderate, thanks to a weak ridge sitting between the islands and a front approximately 350 miles to the north of Honolulu. With this setup, interior and leeward areas can anticipate some afternoon development. Beginning late Sunday and into the middle of next week, winds will graduate from breezy to locally windy conditions - this, as reported by the National Weather Service.
The usual dry conditions are slated to last through most of the work week. "Light showers will favor windward slopes and coasts at night and during the early morning hours," notes the National Weather Service. However, a caveat is in the air for Thursday night and Friday, with possible increased shower activity due to some pulling in of tropical moisture on the Big Island and frontal moisture brushing past Kauai.
For those navigating the skies, the conditions are favorable with no AIRMETs currently in effect and none anticipated. The local aviation scene is set to experience afternoon sea breezes and overnight land breezes, due to light large scale winds in the forecast through at least Thursday. A weak ridge aloft promises stable conditions across the state, with limited cloudiness and a few possible showers according to the National Weather Service aviation discussion.
The marine forecast hints at a rhythmic ebb and flow for coastal goers. While a surface ridge remains weak to the north in the next several days, by the work week's end moderate to strong trade winds are projected to build across the state. Surf conditions will see a gradual uptick, especially on the east-facing shores where surf could approach High Surf Advisory levels by Thursday. "Guidance indicates this first pulse may bring surf to near High Surf Advisory levels for east-facing shores (10 ft faces) as early as Thursday," the National Weather Service details. A subsequent swell Friday into Saturday will likely elevate surf to High Surf Advisory criteria on the east shores yet keeping north-facing exposures below advisory levels.
Finally, for the long-range outlook, a gale- to storm-force low could stir up waves from the Bering Sea to the Gulf of Alaska, possibly bringing a northerly swell our way early next week. Meanwhile, south-facing shores will benefit from smaller, more consistent waves, offering a respite for surfers looking for a calmer ride.
