Honolulu is gearing up for a bit of mixed weather this coming weekend. According to the National Weather Service Honolulu forecast, we should expect light to locally moderate trade winds alongside a few windward showers. Additionally, the afternoons are likely to bring clouds and showers to leeward and interior areas due to sea breezes, with some potentially heavy showers and a chance for thunderstorms come Saturday night and Sunday.
The relatively light winds on offer are thanks to a weakening high-pressure cell a good distance northeast of the islands. This reduction means that trade winds will continue to gently breeze through the weekend, set to swiftly become stronger early next week. Leeward areas might temporarily get to enjoy clearer skies at night and early morning. However, the island atmosphere is primed to possibly destabilize significantly Saturday night through Sunday, with the low aloft moving closer, putting some local heavy showers and, maybe, thunderstorms squarely on the menu, as per the National Weather Service Honolulu's predictions.
For those with flight plans, the aviation report holds VFR conditions for most, with passing showers being the only potential nuisance causing brief MVFR ceilings and visibility issues. Clouded skies around the Big Island's Kona and Kau coasts will likely clear up after sunrise, but afternoon cumulus clouds aren't going anywhere fast, particularly along south and west-facing slopes.
As for the waters around Hawaii, mariners can expect gentle to moderate trade winds up until Saturday. The situation is looking to change with predicted isolated thunderstorms north of the state Saturday night and Sunday, as reported by the National Weather Service. Once the weekend's volatility subsides, high pressure rebuilding north of the state could bring winds strong enough to warrant a Small Craft Advisory, especially near Maui County and the Big Island, come next week Monday. So, while the low aloft prepares to dig S toward the islands, wind enthusiasts should prepare to take advantage later in the week.
Surfers will experience the swell differently depending on their chosen shore. North-facing shores will remain small and mellow with overlapping north swells. East-facing shores will get a small bump on Sunday. South shore surfers can look forward to a moderate long-period south swell beginning Saturday and peaking on Sunday, as per the National Weather Service.
In terms of preparation, the current weather synopsis doesn't justify any Watches, Warnings, or Advisories at this time. However, changes in weather conditions can occur rapidly, and those with outdoor or maritime plans this weekend are encouraged to keep a watchful eye on updates.
