The Hawaiian archipelago braces for gentle to breezy trade winds as high pressure persists to the northeast. According to the National Weather Service in Honolulu, increased moisture from the east is set to occasion higher showers, mainly on the windward side, throughout the early part of November. In the latest weather forecasts and discussions, meteorologists indicate that the trades will carry showers across the islands, with the majority of rainfall concentrated along windward mauka exposures.
Overnight showers have been substantial, particularly on Oahu and the Big Island, where "12 hour rainfall accumulations of greater than 3 inches were recorded at the Honolii Stream and Saddle Quarry gauges," as per the National Weather Service's report. A surface high centered approximately 850 miles north northeast of the state is driving these conditions. Despite the ongoing rain episodes, forecasters are monitoring for potential flooding, but current showers, predominantly light to locally moderate, seem unlikely to cause state-wide flooding issues.
Heading into the weekend, the high-pressure system is expected to drift further east, reducing the pressure gradient and slightly diminishing wind strength over the islands. The National Weather Service anticipates "a weakened pressure gradient back toward the islands," which will veer trade winds more east-southeast, compelling a downturn in shower frequency by tomorrow.
In maritime conditions, the strong trades propel continued caution with a Small Craft Advisory in effect for certain areas. "Winds will then ease into the moderate to locally fresh range out of the east-southeast over the weekend and into early next week," as noted by the NWS, urging mariners to stay vigilant. Surf conditions are looking up for the weekend, with a north-northwest swell expected to peak on Sunday, potentially nearing advisory levels for exposed northern and western shores.
For aviation, moderate trades, with a tendency to weaken tonight, are in today's forecast. AIRMET advisories, signaling mountain obscuration and turbulence, have been issued but are likely to clear by mid to late morning. Meanwhile, beachgoers on east-facing shores can expect continued rough conditions today due to persistent strong eastern Pacific trades, but these too should see a gradual decline by the weekend.
