Honolulu residents can expect gentle to moderate trade winds to persist through the weekend as a high-pressure system situated far northeast of Honolulu maintains its hold. According to the National Weather Service, clouds and passing showers will primarily affect windward and mauka areas. However, a shift in conditions is on the horizon, with forecasts of potential heavy rain and thunderstorms for Maui and the Big Island early next week.
The local pressure gradient has seen relaxation over the past 24 hours, and gentle to moderate trade winds have been prevalent across the Hawaiian island chain. Radar imagery indicates scattered showers moving into windward slopes and coasts, with mostly dry conditions in leeward areas. "A slug of tropical moisture will bring the potential for locally heavy rain and a few thunderstorms early next week," the NWS Honolulu forecast indicates, particularly impacting the eastern islands.
An approaching trough of low pressure is also set to influence weather patterns, causing trade winds to strengthen slightly tonight through tomorrow before subsiding once again. Reinforcing this evolving scenario, a strong front from the northwest is expected to stall over or just north of the islands around mid-week, leading into a period marked by wetter conditions and increased winds.
In maritime news, the previous Small Craft Advisory has been canceled as the easterly trade winds have decreased. Nevertheless, the state's waters are far from stagnant, with a front from the northwest easing the pressure gradient. "A surface trough passing by south of the islands could bring unsettled weather especially around the Big Island waters Monday into Tuesday," as reported by the NWS. This includes the possibility of strong winds that could reignite the need for a Small Craft Advisory in certain areas.
As for Hawaii's surfers, the High Surf Advisory remains in effect until early tomorrow morning for select shorelines, including Niihau and Kauai. Surfers should also note that a moderate long-period northwest swell is expected to peak soon, potentially influencing surf conditions on north and west-facing shores. Meanwhile, the east and south-facing shores will continue to see smaller, choppier waves, with a slight increase potentially on the cards later in the week as trade winds gain strength.
