According to the National Weather Service in Cleveland, a warm front lifting across the Cleveland region today heralds the start of an active weather week. The weather front is expected to be followed by a cold front that will push into western Ohio this evening, resulting in a stationary front over eastern Ohio by tonight and Tuesday. A significant temperature drop is anticipated as arctic air moves in from the Great Lakes by mid- to late-week.
Residents woke to steady rainfall this morning, with the heaviest rain predicted to pass by the I-75 corridor by early morning and the OH/PA border by noon. "Rainfall today looks to average 0.25 to 0.60 inches," detailed a forecast discussion by the National Weather Service. Following the rain, mist and drizzle will likely persist through the afternoon due to lingering moisture.
As the weather front stalls, eastern Ohio will continue to see showers this evening, while drier conditions are expected in western areas, with some cloud clearing overnight. The combination of rain and snowmelt has raised concerns about minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas, especially in northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania.
Looking ahead to Tuesday and Tuesday night, a broad mid/upper trough swinging into the Great Lakes is set to induce surface cyclogenesis along the stalled frontal boundary, potentially bringing additional light rain to the area. The NWS Cleveland indicates the "steadiest rain and greatest amounts east of the I-77 corridor where an additional 0.25 inch could fall." This situation is closely monitored for its impact on travel conditions and potential water accumulation in at-risk areas.
Toward the end of the week, transitioning from synoptic snow to lake effect snow is expected as a strong cold front combines with falling temperatures. Winds are projected to be strong, with gusts between 25 and 35 MPH. "Blowing snow cannot be ruled out across the snowbelt given the higher wind gusts and drier snow," the National Weather Service cautions in its short-term forecast. By Friday, the conditions are predicted to become calmer with the arrival of a drier and warmer air mass.
The aviation forecast for the region likewise warns of potential travel disruptions, with IFR conditions due to rain and low visibility prevailing today. Improvements are expected by evening for western locales, but conditions may remain challenging through Tuesday. Marine conditions on Lake Erie are forecasted to stay calm initially, escalating mid-week as winds pick up, possibly necessitating advisories or warnings for the area.
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