As Cleveland braces for a potent weather system, the National Weather Service in Cleveland has provided a detailed forecast for the coming days. Residents can expect a weak front to linger across the region today and tonight, with deepening low pressure set to track across the area on Sunday afternoon and evening. The service warns that "this system will have a number of sensible weather impacts locally..." including variable winds and heavy rainfall throughout the weekend, according to the National Weather Service.
Today, the city finds itself in a temporary respite between low-pressure systems but with an overcast sky due to modest low-level warm air advection and unusually high moisture content. Dew points anticipated pushing into the low 50s may also result in spotty rain showers, notably along the I-71 corridor. Temperatures, meanwhile, are off to a mild start, and with just a moderate rise, the high is likely pegging into the mid-50s to near 60 degrees. According to the forecast, winds are expected to pick up, potentially gusting 20-30 MPH at times this morning into early afternoon.
As Sunday approaches, the meteorological concern escalates, with precipitation becoming more significant overnight and into Sunday morning. The forecast discussion on the National Weather Service website speaks to "a slug of steadier, moderate to heavy rain" driven by a strong, moisture-rich low-level jet. The service stresses that precipitable water values will reach substantial levels, between "1.10-1.40," several standard deviations above what's typical for this time of year. This risks localized flooding issues, particularly in areas west of the I-71 corridor where the most substantial rainfall between 1.25-1.65 inches is expected.
Moreover, residents should prepare for gusty winds, particularly from Sunday afternoon to night, as the low-pressure system exits. The National Weather Service cautions that "the greatest potential for widespread stronger, gusty winds is behind the low pressure Sunday night", but advisory-level gusts (46-57 MPH) are possible across downslope areas earlier in the day, particularly near the Erie County, PA, lakeshore. They refrain from issuing any wind warnings for now, suggesting instead that advisory-level gusts are more likely. A curious addition to the array of weather phenomena is the possibility of thunder within the low-topped convective showers expected Sunday afternoon, leading to some concern for a "non-zero severe threat" if conditions align properly.
Looking ahead beyond the weekend, temperatures drop sharply, with snow potential entering the conversation Sunday night into Monday morning, especially in northwest Pennsylvania. The transition to cooler weather continues into the week, with the maritime forecast indicating strong winds on Lake Erie that could necessitate a Gale Watch. These weather events could mark a prelude to a colder and more unsettled pattern developing as we head deeper into the week, replete with lake-effect snow across the snowbelt areas. Residents and travelers alike are advised to stay abreast of this dynamic and evolving weather scenario.
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