Honolulu's economy is expected to grow by 2.0% in 2025, according to the latest forecast from the Department of Business, Economic Development, and Tourism. The growth estimate for 2024 was raised to 1.6%, based on better-than-expected results in the first half of the year. The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reports a 1.8% rise in real GDP and a 5.6% increase in personal income. However, expects slower growth in the second half of 2024, with steady growth around 2.0% continuing through 2027, according to the Department of Business, Economic Development, and Tourism.
The economy is recovering with growth in sectors like construction, real estate, and tourism. While tourism is still not fully back, it has reached nearly 93% of its 2019 visitor numbers in 2024. Strong sectors such as information services, professional and technical services, agriculture, and healthcare have helped support the economy. The job market is improving, with construction jobs hitting historic highs, but overall employment is still 21,000 jobs short of pre-pandemic levels, especially in retail and accommodation. Home sales are up by 18% in 2024 compared to last year, and the unemployment rate remains low at 3.0%, below the national average, as reported by the Department of Business, Economic Development, and Tourism.
Inflation is a concern as Honolulu's cost of living rose by 4.2% in September 2024, higher than the national average. Department of Business, Economic Development, and Tourism Director James Kunane Tokioka recognizes the growth but says more progress is needed in tourism. He added, "With the income tax reform and the increase in the supply of affordable housing, we expect that living in Hawaii will be more affordable and our state’s outmigration will be mitigated in 2025 and will start to gain population in future years." Hawaii’s economy is expected to grow by 2.0% in 2025, as stated by the Department of Business, Economic Development, and Tourism.
