The National Weather Service in Sacramento has provided an update indicating that locals may experience cold temperatures and see their breath in the early hours this week, with dry conditions expected to continue over the coming days. In a forecast discussion released this morning, the NWS highlighted cold morning lows along with patchy frost and fog in the Valley.
Freezing temperatures are not widely expected, but some areas in the Valley, particularly those less populated, may experience temperatures at or below 32 degrees on Tuesday morning. The North American Blend model (NBM) forecasts a 20 to 50% chance of temperatures reaching 32 degrees or lower in these areas. As the week progresses, northerly winds are expected to increase, with gusts ranging from 15 to 25 mph by this evening, potentially leading to a cooler end to the day.
Wednesday may bring some changes, with a weak shortwave trough possibly moving through the Pacific Northwest, though significant rainfall is unlikely. Precipitation forecasts show a 30 to 45% chance of more than 0.10 inches of rain in the northern Sacramento Valley and areas to the north. The NWS extended outlook indicates that dry and mild conditions are expected to persist, with light precipitation possible in the northern Sacramento Valley and surrounding areas by Thursday as a larger troughing pattern approaches Northern California.
Looking toward the weekend, a Pacific frontal system is forecast to move through interior Northern California from Friday into early Saturday, bringing a chance of precipitation and breezy conditions. A weak Atmospheric River (Category 1) associated with this system may lead to higher-than-expected precipitation totals, according to the Weather Prediction Center (WPC). Snow levels are expected to start above mountain pass elevations Friday morning, lowering to around 4000 to 5000 feet by Saturday morning as precipitation tapers off. After a potential light dusting of snow showers in the mountains Saturday morning, dry conditions are forecast to return by Monday, with the possibility of locally gusty north to east winds toward the end of the weekend.
