The National Weather Service in Honolulu provided an update today on the current and approaching weather conditions for the Hawaiian islands. According to the latest forecast, a cold front stalling northwest of the state will bring in light to gentle southerlies, which will likely enable the development of daytime sea breezes and overnight land breezes throughout today. Meanwhile, southwesterly winds are expected to pick up across the western third of Hawaii in the next few days due to energy from a Central Pacific trough pushing the front closer to the islands.
As the front lingers near northern waters in the middle of this week, the Hawaiian islands may anticipate "statewide beneficial rain and strengthened breezy winds," according to NWS Honolulu. Weather conditions leading up to this front include light showers moving northward across the Kauai Channel and east of Big Island, as well as lower clouds bringing haze from the Kilauea's emissions, affecting air quality across the state's eastern half.
Even with the recent decrease in eruption activity at Halemaumau Crater, the NWS reports that "a weak veering wind regime around the southern half of the dial will transport SO2 emissions and resultant vog across Maui County and Oahu through tonight." Despite these emissions, the islands are set to enjoy predominantly sunny skies due to a fairly dry resident atmosphere all the way up with regional 1" to 1.25" precipitable waters, which is in the climatological lower quartile for early January. This leads to low to mid 60 dew point air at the surface.
A significant attraction for both residents and tourists is the impressive surf conditions. Exposed north and west-facing shores of the Hawaiian islands are experiencing warning-level surf that may persist through Wednesday night as a result of, overlapping significant swell energy that is entering the region. The "surf heights along exposed north and west facing shores of all islands are peaking well above warning thresholds this morning, and will only slightly decline later today, holding above warning levels into Monday," as per the recent statement from NWS Honolulu.
The aviation sector will not be heavily impacted as the conditions allow for "the development of overnight land breezes and daytime sea breezes." There are currently no AIRMETs in effect. The predicted weather changes should not elevate the risk of fires. No critical fire weather conditions are expected for the upcoming week, with relative humidities forecasted to remain above critical levels, as per NWS Honolulu.
For coastal activities, the NWS has issued a High Surf Warning effective until 6 PM HST Monday for various shores across the islands, including Niihau, Kauai Leeward, and Waianae Coast among others. Those on or near the ocean must exercise caution, as significant swell energy continues to impact the coast. In addition, a Small Craft Advisory is in place until 6 PM HST Monday for Hawaii's waters, except for Maalaea Bay, due to high seas associated with the northwest swell. The High Surf Warning and the Small Craft Advisory are likely to be prolonged as the multiple rounds of significant swell energy persist through Hawaiin Island waters.
