Residents and visitors in Honolulu can expect light to moderate winds and mostly dry conditions continuing through Tuesday night, with the possibility of a few showers along windward slopes and coasts. A shift in the weather is anticipated by midweek as a cold front approaches from the northwest, potentially increasing shower activity, especially over the western end of the state. As the front moves northward on Friday, some residual moisture could maintain scattered showers in the region before giving way to drier conditions over the weekend, according to a forecast by the National Weather Service.
The National Weather Service explains that a 1024 mb high centered about 1000 miles northeast of Honolulu, with a weakening stationary front between the high and the islands, has been influencing the current weather patterns. A new cold front, some 1000 miles west-northwest of Kauai, is also making its approach. The presence of these systems has been maintaining light to moderate trade winds. The agency predicts that "Winds will ease further tonight, followed by a return of light to moderate trades Tuesday and Tuesday night as a new high builds eastward to the north of the state."
As outlined in a forecast provided by the National Weather Service, the high northeast of Hawaii will move eastward today, easing the trade winds and allowing sea breezes to become common across the western islands by the afternoon. With the approach of another stronger front on Wednesday, winds are expected to take a turn to the southerly direction at moderate speeds, before calming again on Thursday as the front stalls out northwest of the islands.
On the aviation front, it's reported that a light east to southeast wind pattern will be dominant, providing generally favorable conditions for flying. "VFR conditions will prevail with periods of cloud ceilings building over island mountain and interior sections with converging sea breezes each day," as per the National Weather Service. The maritime community can also expect a light east to southeast flow during the afternoons, as a ridge of high pressure drifts across the islands.
Beachgoers should take note that High Surf Advisories have been in place for various shores, which are expected to persist until 6 PM HST this evening. Meanwhile, the Small Craft Advisory has been canceled as sea conditions have shown some improvement. However, attention should be paid to the arrival of larger northwest swells later in the week, which could elevate surf to warning levels on select north and west facing shores. The National Weather Service concludes, "Surf along south facing shores will remain tiny with mainly background energy through the week, Surf along east facing shores will also remain tiny to small through the week with a potential slight uptick on Tuesday due to gentle trade winds."
